Financial Mail : 2020-07-02

FEATURE : 29 : 29

FEATURE

x BITING THE BULLET Primary balance/gdp scenarios Public debt/gdp scenarios % of GDP % of GDP 220 8 6 4 170 2 0 120 -2 70 -4 -6 20 -8 -10 -30 -12 Gross debt/gdp (historic) Primary balance/gdp (historic) Gross debt/gdp (active scenario – long-term real GDP growth = 2.5%) Primary balance/gdp (active scenario – long-term real GDP growth = 2.5%) Gross debt/gdp (consolidat­ion scenario – long-term real GDP growth = 3.5%) Primary balance/gdp (consolidat­ion scenario – long-term real GDP growth = 3.5%) Gross debt/gdp (passive scenario) Primary balance/gdp (passive scenario) Primary balance/gdp (stability scenario – long-term real GDP growth = 2.5%) Gross debt/gdp (stability scenario – long-term real GDP growth = 2.5%) Source: Prof P Burger, UFS Source: National Treasury, Prof P Burger, UFS . financialm­ail.co.za 29 July 2 - July 8, 2020

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