‘MAMA’S’ TOUCH
Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan has been in power for just two months. In that time, she’s done much to unwind John Magufuli’s problematic legacy
When Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan took power on March 19 after the death of her predecessor, many wondered how she would go about leading the country. Would she follow in the authoritarian footsteps of John “the bulldozer” Magufuli, under whom Tanzania had been steaming towards catastrophe? Or would she ditch “Magufulism” and steer Tanzania in a more liberal direction?
In a way, that decision was made for her. With Magufuli gone, Magufulism was no longer viable: his authoritarian style of governance had undermined Tanzania’s vibrant democratic landscape and alienated key partners.
Economically, Magufuli’s nationalistic policies had sent investors scuttling, and his Covid denialism had put the lives of his people — and those of neighbouring countries — at unnecessary risk.
Once a golden boy of East Africa, Tanzania had become a global laughing stock and a regional pariah. Enter Hassan.
But while the new president offered the hope of a new direction for the East African country, hers was not the most auspicious of starts. She sparked panic in her inauguration speech, for example, by pledging to “take off where Magufuli left off”. (The reality has been quite the opposite.)
And from the get-go, the odds were stacked against her — particularly in the governing Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party. A Muslim from Zanzibar’s small Unguja South Region constituency, Hassan — who is known locally as “Mama” — had no significant political base. She also had to contend with a party that had become a fiefdom for Magufuli’s conservative Christian clique,
What it means: mostly from within his own Sukuma ethnic group. And that while navigating a maledominated party political landscape.
Outside the CCM, Hassan was tasked with driving a shift in policy and perception to restore the government’s credibility — in the eyes of the general public and international partners — while not stirring discontent among the party’s base.
So far, she’s delivered on all fronts.
First, in a demonstration of political nous, she secured her position in the CCM by forging an alliance with the predominantly Muslim and liberal factions of former presidents Jakaya Kikwete and Ali Hassan Mwinyi.
With their backing, she was able to place her preferred candidates in positions of power while sidelining Magufuli loyalists.
In her first cabinet reshuffle on March 31, for example, she named finance minister and former World Bank economist Philip Mpango — a technocrat — as vice-president.
And after a special CCM congress late last month unanimously backed Hassan as party chair, she sacked Magufuli loyalist Bashiru Ally from his positions of chief secretary and CCM secretary-general.
Hassan’s appointment of Mpango is significant, given his credentials and reputation as a nonpartisan figure. This, along with the demotion of Ally, has been the strongest signal yet that Hassan doesn’t plan on toeing the Magufuli line and appeasing the interests that were once aligned with him.
In the broader political landscape, Hassan is walking back the political repression that took root under Magufuli.
In a speech on April 6, she ordered the ministry of information to lift the ban on independent media houses. Then, on April
22, she pledged to meet opposition leaders to “negotiate a mutually acceptable way forward for democracy” in Tanzania.
It was a gesture welcomed by exiled opposition leader Tundu Lissu — though the Chadema party flag-bearer did demand assurances of his safety and ability to engage in political activity before agreeing to return from Belgium.
Tanzania’s new leader seems on track to take the country on a new, more prosperous path
At present it’s unclear if the ban has indeed been lifted and if meetings with the opposition have gone ahead, but at the very least, Hassan’s rhetoric — something that would have been inconceivable under Magufuli — is a signal of intent to plug Tanzania’s democratic deficit.
Diplomatically, Hassan’s progress has been far more definitive.
Within two months she has flipped Tanzania’s insular position, embarking on at least two trips — to Uganda and Kenya — and welcoming the British minister for Africa.
Each of these engagements has yielded significant payoffs. Late last month, Tanzania, Uganda, oil multinational Total and the China National Offshore Oil Corp concluded negotiations on the $3.5bn East African crude oil pipeline. It will transport oil from Uganda’s Lake Albert fields to Tanzania’s port city Tanga.
Hassan and Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta also inked some lucrative deals during her trip to Nairobi in early May. These include a memorandum of understanding on a potential $1bn pipeline ferrying natural gas from Tanzania to Kenya, and a reciprocal waiver of work visas and business permits.
Importantly, the diplomatic engagements have started undoing years of prickly relations between Tanzania and the broader East African Community, and they should foster mutual economic and diplomatic benefits among members of the regional bloc.
Hassan’s positive momentum has extended to the economic realm, where she is making a concerted effort to exploit the country’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) potential.
Tanzania has harboured LNG ambitions since 1974, but it was only from 2010 that commercially viable quantities of the resource were confirmed by BP, Shell, Equinor, ExxonMobil and other international energy corporations.
So far, 57-trillion cubic feet of proven reserves have been identified — about half of Mozambique’s reserves and equivalent to Libya’s. On a global scale, Tanzania’s reserves rank 21st in size, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
In the early 2010s, then president Kikwete made an effort to fast-track the development of the LNG sector, including by drafting plans for the Tanzania LNG project. Operationally, this would involve the extraction of gas from Shell’s blocks 1 and 4 and Equinor’s block 2, which would be piped from subsea wells to two or three liquefaction plants in Likong’o village.
At the time, this was estimated to require $30bn in investment.
Once Magufuli took power, however, progress stalled: he overhauled legislation, ordered the renegotiation of major contracts and prioritised other ventures.
Now the game is on again. Much to the market’s delight, the Tanzania Petroleum
Development Corp confirmed in early
April that talks with investors in the LNG sector would start in May. The talks, with primary stakeholders Shell and Equinor, will centre on a so-called host government agreement.
Importantly, Hassan’s apparent step back from Magufuli’s economic nationalism, and the backing she’s received from the marketleaning Kikwete bloc of the CCM, suggest that the government overreach that dogged earlier negotiations will be less of a concern.
This may allow for a final investment decision in the medium term and unlock a steady growth stimulus for the coming years through construction activity and extraction.
It will also send a strong message to investors across all sectors that Tanzania is open for business.
Finally, Hassan has flipped the script on Covid, abandoning Magufuli’s denialism and initiating a more orthodox approach. In addition to establishing an advisory committee of experts, she has formally introduced conventional containment measures, including testing and quarantine requirements, mandatory mask wearing and basic hygiene protocols.
This has won her plaudits from the World Health Organisation and other partners that have committed to assisting Tanzania in bolstering its response.
Given the strides she’s taken, excitement over “Mama’s” new direction does not seem misplaced. And the symbolism of Hassan, as a woman, leading a male-dominated institution in a patriarchal society should not be downplayed. But history urges caution.
In the early stages of his tenure, Magufuli blazed in with a sweeping anticorruption agenda and a “big ticket” infrastructure development plan. This soon turned into a crackdown on his rivals and economic sectors such as mining and telecommunications.
Then there’s Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed. Taking power in 2018, after iron-fist rule by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, Abiy promised peace, privatisation and prosperity. Three years on, Abiy looks to have simply replicated the past, given the levels of political repression, widespread conflict and economic stagnation.
Hassan has the opportunity to take Tanzania along a new trajectory. With her position firmly consolidated in the governing party and a guaranteed five-year term following her election alongside Magufuli, she’s under no great political pressure. This should give her the space to make amends with the opposition and restore Tanzania’s democratic credentials — and to do so with minimal risk and significant reward.
Low market expectations mean that even the slightest positive changes could have a disproportionate effect on the investors who are integral to unlocking Tanzania’s economic potential.
In fact, a liberal turn could be the best bet for both Tanzania’s stability and prosperity, and her own political longevity.
Ndhlovu is a senior analyst at risk consultancy
Hassan sparked panic in her inauguration speech by pledging to ‘take off where Magufuli left off’