NEXT TEST OF CYRIL’S RESOLVE

President Cyril Ramaphosa’s resolve as a reformer is set to be tested, now that the radical economic transformation (RET) faction has largely been neutralised. His reaction to what comes next will determine how factions in the governing party will realign themselves and how new loyalties will form in the run-up to the ANC’s elective conference at the end of next year.

Ramaphosa has enabled hitherto broken institutions to combat corruption and to do their jobs. He has pretty much been sitting back and observing as his foes succumbed: think Ace Magashule. But it was always a matter of time before the attention turned to those seen as Ramaphosa’s allies and in addition, how far he would go to protect the ANC.

His conduct thus far in relation to this has been a mixed bag, particularly his failure to release the Special Investigating Unit’s report into the dodgy Digital Vibes contract which implicates former health minister Zweli Mkhize, and his silence around where his former spokesperson Khusela Diko will be deployed after she received a “warning” following a disciplinary process related to her failure to declare a financial interest. Diko has not been found to be corrupt, merely cited for violating regulations. Yet the presidency has been secretive about where she will be moved to next, after it was decided that she will not return to her post as his spokesperson.

Minister in the presidency Mondli Gungubele was also mum this week on whether or not Ramaphosa knew about and approved the release of former president Jacob Zuma on medical parole. This comes after the City Press reported that correctional services head and former spy boss Arthur Fraser had Ramaphosa’s blessing when he released the constitutional-delinquent-in-chief on medical parole, against the advice of the medical parole advisory board.

We still don’t know if the reports of Ramaphosa’s complicity are true, but the presidency has had ample time to deny them and it has not done so.

It was a heinous week for the motley RET crew: Carl Niehaus was axed from Luthuli House so he is no longer able to use his post to stoke unrest in the governing party. Suspended secretary-general Magashule lost his appeal against the judgment which upheld his suspension. Public protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane lost her appeal against the quashing of her report into the SA Revenue Service pension payout to former deputy commissioner Ivan Pillay.

Zuma is on the ropes, despite celebrations by his supporters. The DA has approached the courts (despite its accusation that they are “captured”) to reverse his medical parole and on Tuesday the Helen Suzman Foundation did the same. If Zuma is not truly dying, he may find himself back behind bars before being able to enjoy the state-sponsored comforts of Nkandla. His man, Fraser, is soon to exit the correctional services stage as his contract ends soon — so that’s another get-out-of-jail card yanked away.

Ramaphosa’s opponents are so busy fighting their own battles for freedom, relevance — and perhaps in Zuma’s case, a soul — that they are unlikely to cause the president to lose any sleep. But comments by ANC chair Gwede Mantashe over the weekend might: he warned that reform must affect both “flies and tigers”, meaning even powerful leaders should be brought to book. Given talk that Mantashe has his eye on the deputy presidency, could his reference to “tigers” be a dig at current deputy president David Mabuza?

Mabuza has long been dogged by allegations of dodgy dealings linked to his tenure as Mpumalanga premier, though he has denied them in the absence of evidence. So what does Ramaphosa do when two figures, one key to his rise and both potentially key to his second term, vie for the same post?

Though the presidency has had time to deny reports on Ramaphosa and the Zuma parole, it has not done so