11 KEY RISKS FOR SA IN 2022
From the repercussions of the Zondo commission report to the havoc caused by Covid, there are many areas of concern
This is going to be a torrid year for SA politics. In just the first week, parts of parliament were torched, the Constitutional Court was vandalised, the Zondo commission report implicated political and business players, President Cyril Ramaphosa faced security threats in Limpopo and the power went out while he addressed the party’s gala dinner.
What lies ahead? Here are 11 trends and events that businesses can reflect on as they prepare for the year ahead. This is not a comprehensive list, just some of the amber and red lights.
1. The Zondo commission and its repercussions:
The first part of the Zondo report has once again illustrated corruption by former president Jacob Zuma and his cronies. Businesses, from consultancy firm Bain to auditor PwC, have been drawn in. Two more volumes of the report will be released. If prosecutions of the accused don’t follow swiftly, SA will be deemed to be moving towards failed state status.
2. The ANC national elective conference:
The ANC leadership succession battle has begun, with parts of Limpopo pronouncing their support for Ramaphosa’s re-election. Yet the danger for the ANC and SA about this conference is that it might not go on at all. If Ramaphosa’s safety could not be guaranteed at an ANC Women’s League event last week, how is a 4,500-person conference of bitter enemies to be mounted?
3. Fragile coalitions in key metros: SA’s major metros are now run by the DA, which was propelled to power through uncodified, unwritten, uncertain coalitions whose only glue is opposition parties’ disgust with the ANC’s corruption and some other political considerations. The longer these fragile arrangements last and the faster the DA turns things around in metros such as Joburg, the greater the likelihood that the ANC will suffer significant losses in the 2024 elections.
4. Violence and low-level terror:
It is incredible that we are having this
conversation in SA. Yet, after the July riots, the jubilation of some elements in the ruling party at acts of arson last week and persistent war talk on social media, the threat of violence deserves attention. SACP boss Blade Nzimande says last week’s attacks are “not unconnected to the counterrevolution that was waged in July last year”. Without firm state action, the situation will deteriorate.
5. Economic revival: Minister of finance Enoch Godongwana unveils his maiden budget in February. Can he forge ahead with the key growth-stimulating reforms necessary to turn SA around? Is a basic income grant inevitable? On Saturday Ramaphosa said: “There is a clear need for some form of income support for unemployed and poor South Africans based on clear principles of affordability and sustainability.” I expect tinkering on the economy to continue, but no lightning bolts. I pray I am wrong.
6. Trust in institutions: The shockingly low voter turnout in the November elections underlined just how much trust key institutions of democracy have lost. This followed on Afrobarometer’s findings showing plummeting trust in institutions. This is a warning: if people don’t trust the institutions, what do they do?
7. The growth of opposition opportunity:
The ANC is headed towards extinction. The opposition has a real opportunity to consolidate a path to national and provincial power.
8. Climate change and the growth of environmental activism:
In December Makhanda high court judge Gerald Bloem ruled in favour of activists and communities to stop Shell from continuing with a controversial offshore seismic survey. Communities are waking up. The old ways of doing business are over.
9. An increase of attacks on the judiciary: Last week ANC national executive committee member Lindiwe Sisulu spoke of “mentally colonised” judges and called for an overhaul of the justice system. Expect more of this madness.
10. Key policy and legislation:
Legislation on National Health Insurance, expropriation without compensation and employment equity will be before parliament this year. Expect a rehash of old issues and a lot of populist noise but no real movement.
11. The continuation of Covid havoc: There is still no global plan for equitable vaccine sharing. As World Health Organisation director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus says: “There will be a next [variant].”
The shockingly low voter turnout in the November elections underlined how much trust key institutions of democracy have lost