TUMULT AND TURMOIL
Goings-on in the ruling party are likely to dominate the political landscape in 2022 — there’s a pending leadership battle, possible fallout around the Zondo report, and the perennial faction fighting
n the first week of 2022 three things happened that set the tone for the year ahead: the National Assembly was ravaged by fire, the Zondo commission released the first part of its report on state capture and the ANC’s leadership battle started in earnest.
There are also hangovers from last year that will inform SA’s politics in 2022. For starters, there are the uneasy coalitions and hung councils that emerged from the November local government elections.
These will require political parties to find ways of working together — or, at the very least, of tolerating each other — while they take stock of why so few voters bothered to turn up at the polls in the first place.
If anything, the elections highlighted the huge governance failings at municipal level. But the fragmented councils that have resulted mean the battles between party representatives could hobble attempts to resolve problems such as potholes, water shortages, electricity cuts and neglected infrastructure.
Gauteng’s metros, where the EFF in a surprise move voted against the ANC to put DA mayors in place, could experience particularly interesting times — and face stalemates when decisions have to be made about budgets.
But there could also be conflict in municipalities where the ANC is strong or in power, given infighting in the party. In some wards, by-elections will take place once ward councillors who were nominated through incorrect procedures have been forced to resign. That’s a promise the ANC made before the elections, to contain internal strife.
Nationally, the government will continue to navigate through the constantly changing pandemic. The virulent Omicron variant has caused milder infections and fewer hospitalisations and deaths than its predecessors, but President Cyril Ramaphosa, heeding calls by a number of businesses, has hinted that vaccine mandates could be introduced in some settings.
The struggling economy and record high unemployment — 34.9% in the third quarter
Iof 2021, on the narrow definition — will continue to dominate the government’s focus. The upside is that SA’s economy is growing again after the hard lockdown in 2020 brought it to a near standstill.
The first big event of the year will be the state of the nation address (Sona) on February 10. Proceedings were expected to return to some semblance of normality this year, but the gutting of the National Assembly means the annual opening of parliament will now take place at Cape Town’s city hall, courtesy of the DA-led metro.
Though the ANC caucus at first described the city’s offer of its facilities as opportunism “camouflaged as an act of generosity”, it later backtracked, saying “public facilities regardless of the sphere of their location” should be utilised.
It’s an about-turn that suggests ANC MPs don’t all speak with one voice, even if the party has finally eliminated the contradictory messaging coming out of its national executive committee. (That’s largely due to the sidelining of Ramaphosa’s detractors — including suspended secretary-general Ace Magashule.)
There are some major items on parliament’s agenda this year, meaning meeting venues and equipment will have to be ready when work starts at the end of this month.
After the Sona, parliamentary sittings are expected to be held in the parliamentary precinct, with finance minister Enoch Godongwana’s February budget speech to take place in the Cape of Good Hope Chamber. This will be a hybrid event, as the venue can accommodate only 70 people under lockdown rules.
In the first six months of the year legislators will grapple with the Electoral Amendment Bill, which must allow for individual candidates to run for the 2024 elections independent of political party lists.
Though the Constitutional Court set a deadline of June 2022 for this, home affairs minister Aaron Motsoaledi only tabled the bill in late November. The bill proposes minimal changes to the law — mostly technical amendments to include independents who meet particular criteria, such as demonstrating adequate support.
Ramaphosa has also undertaken to table the state capture inquiry report by the end of June, with an explanation of how he intends to implement its recommendations.
Acting chief justice Raymond Zondo hands over the second part later this month and the third in February. Each will be made public as soon as Ramaphosa receives it. Prosecutions related to Zondo’s findings could start even before the final report reaches parliament, as this process “does not prevent other institutions from acting within their statutory mandate on any of the findings and recommendations of the report”, Ramaphosa said.
What it means:
Zondo and Zuma, in their different ways, will ensure it’s a watershed year for the ANC and the country
Parliament will have the task of overseeing implementation of the report’s recommendations, as well as examining the governance failures that contributed to the large-scale corruption that took place on the watch of former president Jacob Zuma.
Parliament will also have to introspect over its own failings and lack of oversight, after the Zondo commission held special hearings around MPs putting their party above the constitution. It is possible that the final report will contain some recommendations on how parliamentarians could speak out without fear of sanction from their parties.
The African Transformation Movement’s motion of no confidence in Ramaphosa could also be tabled in the next few weeks, after it was resubmitted for the speaker’s consideration. The party argues that irregular expenditure by the government and state-owned entities has increased under Ramaphosa’s leadership, without there being any accountability.
Outside of parliament, leadership battles and policy debates within the ANC and its alliance partners are likely to dominate the political stage this year.
ANC branch members are set to elect new leaders at the party’s conference in December, and all indications are that Ramaphosa will be running for a second five-year term after an early endorsement by Limpopo premier Stan Mathabatha over the weekend.
Ramaphosa’s detractors have, however, pointed out that such an endorsement is premature, with former Umkhonto we Sizwe Military Veterans Association spokesperson Carl Niehaus going so far as to describe it as an “indecent early rush, and awful ill-discipline”.
Strictly speaking, leadership campaigns are only allowed to begin once the provinces have held their general councils in the run-up to the national elective conference.
In July the SACP will hold its elective conference and in September labour federation Cosatu will gather its members.
Both alliance partners support Ramaphosa’s leadership of the ANC as well as his anti-corruption agenda — but any change of direction at their conferences will be an early indicator that Ramaphosa could face a serious challenge in December.
The ANC Youth League is set to have its much-postponed conference this year, after the structure was disbanded in 2018 for failing to hold a successful leadership election. A leadership election is overdue, too, for the ANC Women’s League, which had its most recent national conference in 2015.
The ANC in Mpumalanga, North West, Free State and the Western Cape have all been run by appointed leaders recently, and all now need to convene elective conferences to choose their own provincial leadership teams. There is fierce competition for these positions and, again, the outcome could provide some indication of Ramaphosa’s support ahead of December.
Much of the party’s internal drama will play out in the implementation of the state capture report recommendations — and in the noise arising from the fire at parliament.
On the first of these, it’s not just the ANC that’s been implicated, as a party, in enabling state capture and corruption. Ramaphosa, as deputy president during the years the misdeeds took place, is sure to face some backlash, and some of his allies, including party chair Gwede Mantashe, have been named during testimony.
It might be difficult for Ramaphosa to hold to account those whose support he needs for reelection. If, however, he doesn’t act against them, he could be accused of not being serious and even-handed about fighting graft, using the law to eliminate his political detractors.
Zuma, of course, will remain in the spotlight this year.
He was sentenced to 15 months in prison last year for refusing to abide by a Constitutional Court order to give evidence before the state capture inquiry. The high court last week set aside the September decision by the then prisons head Arthur Fraser to release him on medical parole. But Zuma will bring an appeal against this ruling soon.
He will also be in court on April 11 for his decade-in-the-making corruption trial, which relates to the 783 payments he allegedly received from his former financial adviser Schabir Shaik.
Zuma’s allies are likely to use his legal battles as a platform to campaign for leadership positions in the ANC, using his appearances as an opportunity to court the former president’s supporters.
They will also use the investigation into the fire at parliament to point fingers at weaknesses in the state security apparatus (which reflect negatively on Ramaphosa’s leadership), and to claim alleged perpetrator Zandile Mafe is a convenient scapegoat for the security services’ failings.
The inadequacies of the country’s intelligence and police services were already in sharp focus last year, thanks to the week-long looting and arson spree following Zuma’s incarceration.
None of the masterminds has been charged yet, and an expert panel’s report on the government’s response, commissioned by Ramaphosa in August, is due to be delivered soon.
The outcome of this year’s battles within the ANC will determine the future trajectory of the party — and of SA’s broader political developments.
It might be difficult for Ramaphosa to hold to account those whose support he needs for re-election