POLLS AND PESSIMISM
It looks like more of the same for Africa in 2022, as long-running conflicts drag on, post-coup transitions are delayed and the continent gets set for some fraught elections
Political predictions for 2022 in Africa tend towards pessimism, with the political upheavals of the past few years and the side-effects of the Covid lockdowns continuing into the new year.
Unconstitutional changes of government in Sudan, Mali, Guinea and Chad have yet to be resolved, while a year-long conflict continues in Ethiopia, the seat of the AU.
On the upside, elections should go ahead in at least 10 countries, and economic growth is expected to continue after a contraction in 2020, albeit at a slower rate than elsewhere in the world, by International Monetary Fund estimates. The funding agency puts the regional forecast at 3.8%, with Ivory Coast, Kenya and Rwanda topping the growth tables.
Headed for the polls
High-stakes elections are set to take place in Kenya, Angola, Senegal and Libya, where a new date for last month’s postponed presidential poll is yet to be announced. Analysts caution that some of these elections could be accompanied by protest action and even violence, as civil discontent has increased with the lockdowns of the past two years.
Kenyans are expected to vote in August, when President Uhuru Kenyatta’s constitutionally limited two terms come to an end. Though the 2017 election did not see the same levels of violence as that of 2007, the poll was nonetheless dramatic: after a legal challenge to the results, the court found serious irregularities in the electoral process.
Deputy President William Ruto and veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga — who has contested four elections and served as prime minister from 2008-2013 — are frontrunners.
Kenyatta’s failed bid to create a large power-sharing coalition through the Building Bridges Initiative, which would have seen him retain some hold on power, has upped the stakes.
Angola is also set to vote in August. Incumbent João Lourenço, who took over from long-serving ruler José Eduardo dos Santos in 2017 as part of a succession plan within the ruling People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola, is set to run for a second term.
Lourenço has been hailed for his anticorruption initiatives, which famously resulted in a crackdown on Dos Santos’s daughter Isabel, and for opening political space in the country. But he came to power on the back of an electoral process considered irregular by some, and the upcoming elections could be a test for his reforms.
Senegal will hold local and legislative elections in January and July respectively. Tensions persist following riots in March, after opposition figure Ousmane Sonko was arrested amid socioeconomic grievances. There are also rumours that President
Macky Sall, who is chair of the AU this year, could be seeking re-election when his two terms are up in 2024.
Libya’s first presidential election following the overthrow and murder of long-serving ruler Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 was due to take place just before Christmas, but was postponed due to disputes about the eligibility of candidates and security concerns (the country remains tense in the wake of a civil war). The elections commission has yet to set a new date.
Countries in conflict
Libya is also among the African countries most affected by conflicts at present — along with Ethiopia, South Sudan, the Central African Republic (CAR), northern Mozambique and Cameroon. Violence persists, despite the AU’s aim of “silencing the guns” by 2020 — a goal the regional body had to defer by a decade.
Peace efforts started in Ethiopia last month, when the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) announced its soldiers were retreating to the Tigray region.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said ahead of the country’s Orthodox Christmas celebrations last week that several prominent opposition figures will be released to achieve reconciliation and “lasting unity” through an “all-inclusive national dialogue”.
The TPLF has said it will enter talks with the government if political prisoners are released and a seven-month siege of Tigray is ended. But distrust between the two sides is high, and the TPLF has blamed Ethiopia for a drone attack on a camp for internally displaced people on Saturday it says killed 56 civilians.
AU mediation efforts by former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo continue to stumble along.
The Southern African Development Community (Sadc) started its year with a summit this week to discuss the insurgency in Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province. This followed a weekend meeting on the matter between Mozambique and Rwanda.
Sadc sent troops to Cabo Delgado in July, but most of the fighting since then appears to have fallen to the 2,000-odd Rwandan troops deployed to the country. The insurgents have been expelled from their base in Mocimboa da Praia, but there are concerns about their links across the border in Tanzania.
War continues in the CAR, where the dialogue mooted by the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region and others has still not got off the ground.
In another long-running conflict, South Sudan is entering the final year of implementing the 2018 “revitalised agreement on the resolution of the conflict in the Republic of South Sudan” ahead of elections next year. But ongoing enmity between President Salva Kiir and first vice-president Riek Machar could delay matters.
The five-year conflict in western Cameroon began as protests over poor governance and marginalisation, but resulted in an insurgency causing death and displacement.
Threats of violent extremism and terrorism in the Sahel and Lake Chad basin are also likely to persist, and coastal countries in West Africa and the Horn of Africa are also increasingly at risk.
Coups
Continental bodies are trying to grapple with a recent increase in unconstitutional changes of government. Mali, Chad, Guinea and Sudan are all in the midst of political “transitions” unlikely to be resolved this year.
The 15-member Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) put its foot down on Sunday, announcing that countries in the bloc will close their borders with Mali and impose sweeping economic sanctions in
response to delays in holding elections after two military coups in the past two years.
Mali was supposed to go to elections next month, but the military transitional authority now wants to postpone these until December 2025.
There’s still uncertainty about legislative elections slated for 2022 in Chad, where President Idriss Déby died in battle last April. After his death, a military junta led by his son, Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, claimed power, in contravention of the constitution. The junta has declared its willingness to organise an inclusive dialogue, but the details have yet to be agreed.
In Guinea, army officer Mamady Doumbouya is still in charge after leading a popular coup to depose president Alpha Condé in September, less than a year after he was controversially re-elected for a third term.
Ecowas requested a six-month transition until March, but Doumbouya says it’s up to Guineans to decide. Developments in the country so far suggest the process is on track.
Sudan’s civilian prime minister Abdalla Hamdok resigned early in the new year after mass protests.
A military takeover, supported by civilian protest action, ousted Omar al-Bashir from the presidency in 2019, but coexistence between the civilian-military transitional authorities has since been strained.
Hamdok was removed in another coup in October, but sustained protests led to his reinstatement a month later. Not that this stopped the demonstrations: he drew strong criticism for signing the deal to effect his reinstatement, with protesters claiming it provided the military takeover with a cloak of legitimacy.
The UN has now intervened, saying it will initiate talks to help find a solution to the crisis. Sudan’s transition was meant to end this year with the election of new authorities, but the recent coup has broken trust between the military and civilians.
Diplomacy
The AU is set to deal with a long list of concerns at its annual heads of state summit on February 5 and 6. It’s the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the continental body in its present form, though uncertainty related to Covid restrictions — and, unofficially, the political situation in Ethiopia — has complicated planning for the celebrations.
Priorities for the continental body, apart from conflicts, elections and transitional issues, will include Covid-related economic and health challenges, climate change and finding ways to increase self-funding. A summit between the AU and the EU is scheduled to take place in Brussels in midFebruary. It’s likely to cover much the same ground, as well as migration. It will also focus on financing economic development, and on French President Emmanuel Macron’s efforts to redefine relations with the continent. France has the presidency of the Council of the EU for the first six months of the year, and Macron is expected to leverage any gains he makes with Africa to try to secure re-election back home in April.
Other global powers will continue to vie for Africa’s attention this year. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi has already concluded that country’s traditional new year’s visit to the continent, with a tour of Eritrea, Kenya and the Comoros. Meanwhile, the UK will be looking to the Commonwealth heads of government meeting in Kigali — postponed to this year — to increase its influence in the continent.
Controversy about the involvement of Russian private military operator Wagner in conflict spots is set to continue, while the US works to redefine its role in Africa under President Joe Biden.