The ANC in 2022
In the ANC’s January 8 statement, delivered by President Cyril Ramaphosa in Polokwane, the party outlines five priorities for the year ahead:
Build a social compact: Government, business, labour and the community are to work together to address unemployment and poverty. This speaks to the implementation of the Economic Reconstruction & Recovery Plan, launched last October. It is aimed at repairing an economy damaged by Covid, introducing Covid vaccine mandates and giving effect to the party’s 2017 resolution to expropriate land without compensation.
Defend democratic gains: Back in 2017, the ANC resolved to support the establishment of a judicial commission of inquiry into allegations of state capture. Now it says it will “support government in effecting the measures required to eliminate conditions and conduct that enable state capture and systemic corruption”. It plans to put in place “mechanisms” to process the Zondo commission’s report, published in three parts this month and next month.
Accelerate the renewal and rebuilding of the ANC:
This aim — made all the more urgent by losses in the 2021 local government elections — involves “a return to revolutionary discipline and to the culture of democratic centralism”. This means decisions of the party’s national leadership are binding on all structures. Party leaders charged with serious crime and corruption are required to step aside.
Build a capable developmental state for effective service delivery:
The ANC aims to pay closer attention to selecting public representatives who are suitably qualified and to seeing a public service that can deliver housing, health care, education and other government services.
Continue to work for a better Africa and a better world:
Peace, prosperity and equitable development in Africa remain a central focus for international relations. The ANC will also work to establish and sustain party-to-party links “in countries that are striving to entrench democracy” — particularly Libya, Sudan and South Sudan.
IOL website in which she used strong language to criticise black judges — an attack Zondo described as “rich in insult but very poor in substantiation and in any analysis”. Sisulu’s name doesn’t feature in the first part of the state capture report, and she wasn’t called to testify. In fact, she was mentioned just once during proceedings — as a shareholder of Dyambu Holdings, the company that birthed Bosasa (it’s a claim she’s denied). But her attack on black judges could be a boost to those who have been implicated in the report.
Sisulu has long been outspoken about the inquiry, saying in a tweet last March that it is an “expensive way of dealing with corruption” (the commission has cost taxpayers about R1bn), with “absolutely no guarantee of consequences”.
Sisulu did not respond to written questions from the FM through her spokesperson, Mphumzi Zuzile.
Ramaphosa, of course, looks set to run for a second term, after not resisting an endorsement by Limpopo leaders at the party’s January 8 rally. But some analysts suggest his detractors might be planning more disruptions, like the large-scale July riots that gripped KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and Gauteng, to knock his campaign off-balance.
Meanwhile, Mashatile says the party’s real work on the commission’s recommendations will only start once the NEC has appointed a “small committee” to consider the report and its recommendations, and determine how the party should deal with it.
That committee will also look at how to get the message to lower structures. “This is a comprehensive approach — not nit-picking areas, but looking at the entire report so that the report is implemented,” he tells the FM. “Even where it criticises us, we should be able to say: ‘How do we change the ways we do things?’”
Mashatile says this was what Mantashe meant when he told journalists the party shouldn’t use the report “to hunt each other down and destroy everything that is in the
movement”, but rather to “look into the mistakes and weaknesses that are in that report and try to correct them”.
Says Mashatile: “It is possible that, where you have factions, people will view the report in a way to bash one another. You cannot have that. Where the report says somebody is involved in wrongdoing, the law must take its course.”
It isn’t correct to shield people from prosecution in the name of unity, he adds.
Interestingly, given the commission’s findings, Mashatile suggests the ANC won’t do away with the deployment committee. Instead, it’s likely to “fine-tune” its processes, and apply them to public representatives alone. “It wasn’t meant to take people to various positions for them to siphon state resources, but to put the best cadres in areas where they would be able to take the country forward,” he says. “The intention has always been noble.”
The deployment committee doesn’t impose, says Mashatile, but allows ministers to choose their appointments, and the Judicial Service Commission to pick judges independently.
Another insider suggests there will also be an effort to structure the deployment committee’s minutes better, presumably to ensure transparency and to avoid embarrassment should these be published. (The commission released deployment committee minutes from 2018-2021 as part of the bundle of documents related to Ramaphosa’s testimony.) A “renewal commission” will also look at corruption in the party, as part of developing a vision ahead of the ANC’s 120th birthday in 2032.
“It is about going back to proper values, dealing with corruption and deploying capable cadres,” Mashatile says.
“You also look at what the state capture report is saying and then you factor those issues in as part of that process of renewal. So [implementing the report’s recommendations] won’t be an abrupt thing.”
The ultimate aim, in Mashatile’s view, is “to turn the ANC around to be the party that people can trust”, and ensure ANC leaders care about the problems facing communities, such as water and electricity provision, and growing the economy to create jobs.
Backs to the wall
Rebuilding trust with voters will be a priority. Last year, the party’s national share of the vote fell below 50% for the first time. There’s no doubt that four years of revelations of the rot in government would have played some part in this.
It’s left the ANC uncertain of where it may be after the 2024 general elections. In its worstcase scenario, the December conference could be the last where the selection of SA’s president is up to ANC delegates.
Still, governance is unlikely to improve in the year ahead, as internal ANC squabbles are expected to keep leaders busy.
“The ANC is a party in decline and this has become significantly apparent even to its leaders after the last local government elections,” says political analyst and talk-show host Lukhona Mnguni.
The electoral patterns in the two most populous provinces, KZN and Gauteng, in both the 2019 national and 2021 local government elections, point towards a loss of majority support for the party. “That will significantly [affect] the national outcome for the ANC,” Mnguni says.
“Whatever power-broking configurations are going to be made towards this next [ANC] conference, it’s going to be much more difficult because it’s apparent that the ANC will see a significant shift in its power come 2024.”
Some would like to make a last bid for highranking government positions before the ANC loses power, which will up the stakes, he says.
Oscar van Heerden, political analyst and deputy vice-chancellor at the University of Fort Hare, says people are expecting to see action from the state capture report. “The question is: will Ramaphosa have the manoeuvring capabilities?” he asks.
Van Heerden says while Ramaphosa has managed to get institutions such as Sars and the NPA back on track, there is some uncertainty over whether the NPA is fully equipped for the prosecutions. Even if it is, “it won’t be a quick fix”, he says, adding that those in the ANC targeted by prosecutions are likely to step up their response.
“They feel the only way they can avoid prosecution is if they can unseat Cyril Ramaphosa,” he says. “They want to make it a bloodless coup ... it is not in their interest to destroy the ANC because they still need it to have access to the public purse. They are astute enough to know that an ANC without Ramaphosa as president is going to suffer significantly in 2024.”
Some reckon Ramaphosa’s detractors will try to cause as much disruption as possible, continuing from the July riots and arson in KZN and Gauteng. He is aware of this, and has added the fire that gutted the National Assembly during the first weekend of the year to his list of “attacks against SA’s democracy” — even though it’s not yet clear how the blaze started.
Those who want to influence conference outcomes might also be up to their usual tricks, such as the bulk-buying of party membership to try to sway voting patterns. With Magashule suspended and Duarte on extended sick leave, this might prove easier than before.
Eastern Cape premier and ANC provincial chair Oscar Mabuyane — a staunch Ramaphosa ally — says the province has already detected a “syndicate” targeting the party’s new electronic membership systems ahead of the provincial elective conference.
“There are people who are pushing back at renewal at all costs,” Mabuyane says.
A high-ranking pro-Ramaphosa ANC official says conference years are always characterised by tense moments.
“You’re not going to have an easy year, it will be hectic and full of action, negative and positive, and sometimes full of tension, with or without the Zondo commission,” he says.
“But it is a fight against corruption, and it will not be smooth in that context. There are leaders who appeared before Zondo and know what recommendations the commission is going to make, and it might just add fuel to this.”
The ANC is a party in decline and this has become significantly apparent even to its leaders after the last local government elections
Lukhona Mnguni