IS ‘THE CAT’ OUT OF LIVES?
Deputy President David Mabuza used to exert substantial power in the ANC’s second-most important province. But his influence seems to be on the wane
Deputy President David Mabuza has an uncanny ability to micromanage a gathering. This much was clear at the ANC’s provincial general council in Mpumalanga in 2017, when Mabuza — then the provincial premier and party chair — left the stage just to adjust some sound equipment.
It’s the kind of attention to detail that can be intimidating. And it would almost certainly have caused second thoughts for anyone toying with the idea of opposing his plan to support “unity” for the Nasrec elective conference a few weeks later.
In theory, delegates were set to vote for either Cyril Ramaphosa or Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma as ANC president. Mabuza, however, wanted the party to choose its national leaders by consensus — an unusual concept in the circumstances.
Unsurprisingly, Mpumalanga supported his plan.
At the time, it was thought Mabuza would swing Mpumalanga’s support behind Dlamini Zuma. He was, after all, part of the “premier league” and an ally of then Free State premier Ace Magashule.
The province’s backing was not inconsequential: Mpumalanga had replaced the Eastern Cape as the province with the second-largest ANC membership after KwaZulu-Natal — in part, apparently, because Mabuza micromanaged the branch-creation process.
As it turned out, his “unity” bloc ended up supporting Ramaphosa after an 11th-hour deal that also paved the way for Mabuza to become deputy president.
Things couldn’t have been more different at Mpumalanga’s provincial conference last weekend, where Mabuza was conspicuous by his absence (as deputy president he would have no business being there without an invitation). But his shadow was felt when his supporters nominated leaders from the floor. Only, this time the intimidation tactic had little effect. It was a Ramaphosa lobbyist, Mandla Ndlovu, who won the day, becoming provincial party chair with about two-thirds of the total vote.
In his closing speech, he urged Ramaphosa to accept nomination for a second term as president ahead of the elective conference in December.
It’s a far cry from Mpumalanga’s “unity” position of 2017. But it’s not as though Mabuza’s plan resulted in anything of the sort: the ANC’s 86-member national executive committee was split almost down the middle. And in Magashule,
Ramaphosa was left with a party secretary-general he couldn’t trust.
While Ramaphosa’s Magashule problem was resolved with the secretary-general’s suspension last year, Mabuza has remained a thorn in his side. He was never a lobbyist for Ramaphosa, so the president can’t fully trust him, and the whiff of corruption about him doesn’t really fit with Ramaphosa’s reform drive.
There’s also Mabuza’s reputation for operating in the shadows — the reason, it’s said, that he’s called “The Cat”.
For example, R14m in cash allegedly went missing from Mabuza’s farm in Barberton in 2009, but that case quietly disappeared. There were allegations of large-scale corruption in the province under his watch, but these were never proven. Recently, he’s been at the centre of a R1bn case, brought by conservationist Fred Daniel, who claims Mabuza threatened his life. But even this has been more low-key than might be expected, given his position as deputy president.
Even on the official stage, Mabuza has been largely absent, only appearing in public when he has to. It’s allowed speculation about his health to thrive. In mid-2021, he was away for six weeks for what he said was treatment following a poisoning incident in 2015. His absence coincided with the violent July riots.
It was once said that Mabuza has presidential ambitions. But his unease in the spotlight would seem to contradict that. In any event, right now it’s not even certain he will be strong enough to retain his current position come December.
In 2019, months after he’d left Mpumalanga, Mabuza noted that the ANC in the province was fractured. That’s unsurprising: as provincial premier for close to a decade and ANC chair for 15 years, he’d held a tight grip on power; in his absence, his networks started to crumble.
The appointment of Refilwe Mtsweni-Tsipane as Mabuza’s successor in 2018 wouldn’t have helped: she is closer to Magashule than Mabuza, and gradually purged his supporters from her executive after becoming premier.
Ultimately, though, Mabuza might have overplayed his hand at Nasrec by leading Dlamini Zuma’s camp to believe he’d support her presidential bid, then expediently ditching her for Ramaphosa. It means neither camp really trusts him any more.
A detractor once said Mabuza is at his most dangerous when he appears at his weakest. However, many in the party now believe The Cat has finally run out of lives.