Fumbling and failure in Covid
SA’s quick alert over Omicron shows up China’s reckless response in 2019
It will likely be years before we understand the full impact of Covid on our societies and economies, beyond knowing that it has been hugely destructive as well as divisive at community and family level. It will be years before we know which countries handled it best, and which didn’t do so well.
Two years into the pandemic, it seems the US and Brazil continue to hold the worst performer medal — but China’s previously impressive “take no prisoners” approach is now looking decidedly unimpressive.
When it came to Covid guidance, the medical world seemed to have been as confused and confusing as the world of economics generally is when it comes to guiding us through an economic crisis. Often it seemed to be a matter of faith rather than science.
Governments across the globe appeared to fumble their way through, some more spectacularly than others.
Of course, the same could be said for their response to the financial crisis. The fumbling could explain the nearanarchical response of many countries’ citizens.
Having experienced Covid lockdowns in four countries — Ireland, France, Spain and SA — it seems to me there wasn’t too much difference in the fumbled response of the four governments involved. Apart, of course, from the early SA response, when the sale of alcohol and cigarettes was banned. Fortunately at that stage I was in Ireland, where alcohol sales were regarded as essential; off-licences were allowed to stay open but pubs were closed for about 15 months. Last St Patrick’s Day was the first time in three years the Irish were able to celebrate their patron saint in a pub.
While I was extremely thankful not to be trapped in SA during the early months, being stuck in France for its late 2020 lockdown was pretty grim. Leaving the house — only one hour a day was permitted — involved filling out an “attestation” form explaining that you wanted to venture out to buy essentials — that is, food and wine. Carrying a baguette was usually a good way to avoid being interrogated by an overly keen gendarme.
Though I was vaccinated at the same time almost to the week as my similarly aged SA friends, there was a dramatic difference in my indirect experience of infection rates.
In the 18 months I was trapped in Europe I knew noone there who contracted Covid but, chillingly, I did know of South Africans who got it and died of it/with it.
There were differences in how citizens responded in the four countries. While people in each country seemed convinced their government was fumbling more than most, some were louder in their criticism and more anarchic in their response (think SA) than others (think Ireland).
In November 2021, with the emergence of Omicron, we became aware of two facts about Covid: first, if the pandemic had started in
SA, the world would have known about it in 2019 and, second, it would have been called the SA virus.
SA’s response to Omicron should have humiliated China. The speed at which Omicron was identified and the world notified, with ongoing worldclass research shared timeously across the globe in subsequent months, has made China’s mean-spirited, defensive and insular approach back in December 2019 seem not only reprehensible but recklessly lethal.
And now, China’s zero tolerance approach doesn’t appear to be the solution many had believed, even for autocracies that have more pliable citizens. Shanghai is the latest big city on the mainland to be hit. The relatively high number of foreigners in that city has ensured global media attention that reveals Chinese authorities are capable of as much fumbling as most others.
The number of deaths looks suspiciously low.
It could be down to China’s “narrow death certification process for infectious diseases”, as suggested by one epidemiologist, or, more worryingly, a mean-spirited and defensive desire to prove China can manage Covid better than Western democracies.
There is much at stake. Not just President Xi Jinping’s ability to hold on to power and global trading lines remaining intact, but the prospect of another strain developing and spreading across the globe again.
From a global perspective, it’s probably safe to say even at this early stage that SA has handled this pandemic much better than China.