The joy and pain of turbulence
ITHOROUGHLY ENJOY THE ODD bout of market ructions. I’ve seen many such upheavals, the first being that horrible period in the late 1990s just after the small-cap listings boom on the JSE. Then a lowly junior reporter at
Business Day, I had no spare funds available to capitalise on collapsed share prices.
That was a good thing, as many counters simply went under.
The latest jittery period leading up to the compilation of this edition of IM was particularly enjoyable, with so many events rattling sentiment. Even the toughest trader would have found it hard to stay composed.
I loved the mini-banking crisis — which, predictably, brought out the very best from outraged conspiracy theorists and doomsayers. My late father, a UBS veteran, must be spinning in his grave.
Locally we had the Transaction Capital blowout, an event not exactly gazed at through calm, rational lenses. Then we had the Great Shutdown — wedged between a long weekend and Human Rights Day. A few punters expected the country to go up in flames à la June 2022.
Personally, I think the underwhelming disruptions on shutdown day reinforced views that radical marginal groups might be more bark than bite. I certainly hope so.
If there was a manifestation of relief, it might have been well illustrated in the local real estate market. A friend who was battling to fetch an acceptable price on a house in Kommetjie was suddenly inundated with offers after the shutdown fizzled away. Encouragingly, there was loads of interest from foreign buyers.
My little indulgences during these jittery days were to dive into redoubtable Remgro at under R130 and nibble at Hosken Consolidated Investments as it shifted below R185. The Remgro discount — ahead of the release of its interim results — was briefly close to 45%.
HCI’s NAV is a little more difficult to discern, what with the buzz around oil and gas exploration off the Namibian coast. In fact, Namibia’s better energised economic prospects reminded me that I still have a share certificate for a bunch of Nictus — a Namibian Stock Exchangelisted
group that operates in car dealerships, furniture retailing and tyres.
These shares, which have retained a damned decent dividend over many years, may be worth a little more if the Namibian economy is fired up by bigspending oil majors.
Yes, if you must know, I did mess about in Transaction Capital. I’m human, and I can’t help surveying smouldering wreckage for possible value recovery. At time of writing I hold a smallish position — with an average price of R11.29 a share. Of course, there were a few regrets. Hulamin was sitting at 250c a share ahead of its well-reinforced results, and I only managed to clamber in at closer to 300c.
More market jitters, I could definitely handle. And you?