LET GWEDE RAGE, AND STICK TO THE PLAN

The tantrum was inevitable; Ramaphosa’s bypass tactic was never going to go smoothly. But it is in everyone’s interest, not least the ANC’s, that Ramokgopa succeeds

President Cyril Ramaphosa has had a busy week for starters, he signed the crucial Electoral Amendment Act into law and finally appointed a new SABC board, some six months after the term of the last board expired. And then there was the task of executive performance assessments, and the shuffling of responsibilities among cabinet ministers.

This last might be his biggest headache. A Mail & Guardian report on Friday indicated that a “cold war” was brewing between Ramaphosa and Gwede Mantashe, the minister of mineral resources & energy, because the president had moved some of Mantashe’s powers to the new minister of electricity, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa.

Mantashe’s policies and pronouncements on energy have long been controversial, from his failed bid to procure emergency power from Karpowership to his hesitancy in unleashing independent power producers. His commitment to coal has climate activists wringing their hands, but the government position has never been to completely abandon the fossil fuel which would be impossible, anyway.

The M&G report signals a significant development in Ramaphosa’s approach to the turf wars in his cabinet over energy, a sector in which billions of rand are in play. The president might just be drawing a line in the sand.

The FM has established that Mantashe was enraged by a letter Ramaphosa sent him last week outlining the new energy dispensation and demanded a meeting. It is understood that the letter “basically takes all energy powers to the new minister”.

According to two accounts, Mantashe asked Ramaphosa if he had read the letter before signing it and whether he realised that it effectively meant he was being fired from the energy portfolio. One of Mantashe’s major objections had to do with procurement.

Just four months ago, at its national conference in December, the ANC resolved that oversight over Eskom should shift from the department of public enterprises to Mantashe’s ministry. It was Mantashe himself who pushed for this, and it was regarded as a victory for him in his longrunning feud with Pravin Gordhan, minister of public enterprises.

Ramaphosa tried to sidestep the Mantashe-Gordhan squabbling by appointing Ramokgopa as electricity minister so that someone could get on with the task of tackling load-shedding, the urgency of which was underlined this week by what energy experts say was stealth stage 8 load-shedding. And winter proper hasn’t even begun.

Ramokgopa is still waiting to be granted the powers he needs, while Mantashe throws his toys out the cot.

The tantrum was inevitable; Ramaphosa’s bypass tactic was never going to go smoothly. But it is in everyone’s interest, not least the ANC’s, that Ramokgopa succeeds.

Now Ramaphosa needs to make the hard choices and risk alienating Mantashe, who does not take kindly to snubs. He is inclined to “personalise” such setbacks, a senior government source says.

Recent cases include his department’s proposal for an expensive, state-owned mineral exploration database that the private sector could buy into. The plan was viewed as having potential but was poorly researched with no model for funding, so it was kicked back for further work.

Then there was a proposal to merge PetroSA, iGas and the Strategic Fuel Fund, which was rejected, the FM understands, because it had not been properly thought through.

So what does Ramaphosa risk, politically, if he does alienate Mantashe? For one, the ANC national chair is a dependable ally of the president’s in the party’s top seven. But Mantashe’s support is not as indispensable as it was in his first term, when Ace Magashule was a baleful presence. Second, up until now at least, Mantashe could be counted on to back Ramaphosa in parliament, where the fallout from Phala Phala still simmers. But Mantashe is far from the only bull in the ANC caucus.

As a second-term president, Ramaphosa really has little to lose from offending Mantashe.

According to the presidency, the process to assign Ramokgopa powers is still under way and has been “collegial”. It is not necessarily a permanent change, given that the new minister’s job will end if and when load-shedding is under control. Ramaphosa has no choice but to push ahead with whatever needs to be done to ensure Ramokgopa succeeds.

Mantashe’s rage lays bare his deep anxiety over losing the levers of power even temporarily in the energy sector.

Which raises the question: why so desperate?