WILL WE BYPASS THE QUICKSAND, OR MARCH STRAIGHT IN?
The Brics summit, and a possible new crisis over arresting the Russian leader, is just three months away. Does the government have the nous to find a way out of its predicament?
The Ukraine war has long calcified into a matter of either/or: you’re aligned with Russia, or you support Ukraine, the West and Nato. It is difficult to make a nuanced argument about it — as South Africa is finding out the hard way.
The problem is that the state has haemorrhaged so much of its nous and talent that now it can only stumble along like a deer in the headlights as it tries to navigate what has the potential to be the biggest crisis the world has faced since the Cold War.
Domestic statecraft is all but lost. We are out of our depth in this highly complex international terrain.
After Washington first alerted South Africa in January to its belief that the Russian vessel Lady R, subject of US sanctions, had picked up war materiel during its secretive visit to Simon’s Town the previous month, President Cyril Ramaphosa promised to look into it — and then did nothing.
Had Ramaphosa gone public about the saga at the time, much of the sting would have been taken out of it and the presence of army chief Lt-Gen Lawrence Mbatha in Moscow this week would not seem so sinister.
And if South Africa really wanted to signal its neutrality, it could have politely declined invitations from both sides of the geopolitical divide to take part in joint military exercises. It seems we lack the basic diplomatic insight to do so.
True to form, Ramaphosa did nothing, hoping the whole mess would go away itself. It didn’t.
So the commander-in-chief is asleep at the wheel or too deep in shock to function, diplomat-in-chief Naledi Pandor is seldom diplomatic and defence minister Thandi Modise — maintaining the Lady R was delivering an old order to us — chooses to take delivery in the dead of night.
It is a recipe for disaster.
South Africa is mired in a deep management deficit at a time when solid, principled and competent leadership is crucial. The major emergencies of the past 4½ years — the pandemic, the July 2021 unrest, the power crisis — required a strong leadership core with both hands firmly on the wheel. That’s not what we got.
Another potential crisis is rapidly approaching — Russian President Vladimir Putin’s arrival in South Africa for the Brics summit, just three months away. South Africa would be obliged to arrest Putin in terms of the war crimes warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in March and has no wiggle room because of a high court judgment issued in 2017 when Sudan’s Omar al-Bashir was allowed to come and go unhindered despite a similar ICC warrant for his arrest.
So Ramaphosa’s administration faces a conundrum — if it complies with international law and claps Putin in irons, Moscow will, in its own words, regard it as a declaration of war.
It all seems too complicated for Pretoria. Again and again it finds itself pushed into a corner over its conduct. From the outside, South Africa’s conduct seems disquieting at best, but a closer look reveals it’s sheer bungling — think Ramaphosa incorrectly announcing SA’s withdrawal from the ICC.
There are some in the ANC who favour a balls-to-the-wall approach to Putin’s arrest — there is not a country in the world that would arrest him, they argue. Sure, but what message does it send to treat our own laws with disdain as we battle rising lawlessness and debilitating corruption. Then there are those in the party and the government who believe rushing through legislation to “domesticate” the Rome Statute — or incorporate some of its provisions into local law — would somehow create a loophole that would allow Ramaphosa to welcome Putin with Klippies and Coke instead of handcuffs.
Neither of these approaches is well thought out or practical. There is a third way, punted by some: to have a frank discussion between Brics members on how to proceed. The solution may be as simple as moving the summit to another country. But simple, effective solutions are seldom popular in ANC circles.
South Africa’s inability to display nuance or competence is keeping it on the back foot. Deftly finessing the Putin arrest conundrum could be a chance for partial redemption but can Ramaphosa’s administration rise to the occasion?
Deftly finessing the Putin arrest conundrum could be a chance for partial redemption — but can Ramaphosa’s administration rise to the occasion?