THE SIMPLE PACT THAT COULD DOOM THE ANC

A durable tie-up between the DA and the IFP could oust the ANC in KZN and relegate it to rural status nationally

The most significant watershed for opposition politics ahead of the elections next year would be a solid, uncompromising pact between the DA and the IFP; the rest is moonshine. “Big things start small, but not every small thing can become big,” tweets James Clear, author of the bestseller Atomic Habits: Tiny Changes, Remarkable Results. “You need to be on the right trajectory. Choose the right playing field and success comes more easily.”

The small thing was a meeting between the DA and IFP last October, at which the parties agreed on a coalition strategy for all levels of government.

The right trajectory is the two parties working closely together to unseat the ANC in by-elections.

The right playing field is KwaZulu-Natal.

The question is, can the DA-IFP co-operation in by-elections in KZN since that meeting become the big thing that dislodges the ANC in the province and even nationally?

The co-operation trajectory has continued this year, with the IFP participating in discussions about DA leader John Steenhuisen’s “moonshot pact”.

The ANC has already admitted that the collaboration between the DA and IFP in KZN, the country’s second-most populous province, is making inroads, as seen in recent by-elections. The IFP’s stellar performance in these polls shows it is on track for a powerful resurgence at provincial level next year.

DA polling shows that the two parties combined can win a big enough share of the provincial vote to oust the ANC if one or two other parties make common cause. This would have earthshaking consequences — for one, it would mean the ANC is effectively relegated to being a rural party. Long out of power in the Western Cape and losing ground in Gauteng, it would see the third of the highly urbanised provinces slip from its grasp.

But it is early days and it is still unclear whether the DA-IFP romance will stand the test of time, or whether the IFP’s success in byelections will carry through into provincial and national voting. Aware of the challenge, the ANC has sent a high-level team to the province to help with its election campaign.

Complicating matters for it in KZN is the potential for a protest vote by those who remain loyal to former president Jacob Zuma. And the party faces major service delivery problems, rampant corruption and looting.

So why isn’t a concrete IFP-DA tie-up a done deal yet?

For starters, the IFP is keenly aware of the strong position it is in to shape national politics. Party president Velenkosini Hlabisa is coy about the IFP’s strategy come 2024. He tells the FM the party is open to working with anyone who shares its values in the task of rebuilding South Africa after years of disastrous ANC rule.

This does not exclude the ANC itself, ironically. Nor does it exclude the EFF, which the IFP fell out with last year over a disagreement on positions.

“The IFP believes in working with any political party with which we share a common vision of the South Africa we want,” he says.

“South Africa has enormous problems; crime, unemployment, poor services, load-shedding The government is failing to hold things together.

“Whoever, not only the DA, sees the danger we are seeing, we will work with to save the little that we have left.”

The IFP has an “open-door policy” and will talk to all comers; nor is it hung up on political ideologies, Hlabisa says. “It is these political ideologies that have destroyed our country we need common values.”

But for the ANC to win the IFP’s co-operation, it would have to act harshly against all those implicated in the Zondo commission, he says. The ruling party would have to demonstrate its commitment to fighting corruption by recovering all lost funds through the Special Investigating Unit.

Hlabisa says South Africa needs a government of national unity once again, similar to the one formed in 1994, to focus on the country’s urgent challenges rather than obsess over ideology, positions and power. “Political parties should think beyond themselves,” he says. “We should say we have a country that is chaotic and we need to fix it. What are the values we need to fix? Those values should bind us.”

While many parties claim they will be kingmakers in the upcoming elections, the IFP has been more modest.

What is clear is that if the pact holds firm between the IFP, with its strong rural support, and the DA, with its popularity in towns and cities, then the lacklustre, idea-bereft ANC will be in deep trouble, in KZN at least, in 2024.