SHIFTING SANDS OF NONALIGNMENT
SA needs to strike a delicate balance between its commitment to nonalignment and the need to forge new partnerships
Our country has historically held a prominent role within the global nonaligned movement, its trajectory marked by the triumph over apartheid and the establishment of a constitutional democracy.
The nation’s foreign policy has been rooted in the values of peaceful coexistence, multilateralism and international law. But in recent times, the task of navigating our relations with major powers has become more complex. Today, South Africa is at a crucial crossroads that threatens to unsettle its diplomatic alliances.
At first, the country embraced nonalignment as a means to assert its independence and resist external pressure during the apartheid era. Over time, this commitment to nonalignment evolved to deliberately pursuing strategic alliances and international economic co-operation.
In the 21st century, however, it is the very notion of nonalignment that is under siege. The ascent of China and other emerging powers has ushered in a multipolar global landscape, intensifying the competition for influence. This means countries such as South Africa find it much harder to argue they’re “preserving their impartiality” in this new paradigm.
It’s in this context that South Africa and the US, long-standing allies though they may be, are now entangled in a diplomatic row over global efforts to isolate Russia. The US has accused South Africa of not doing enough to denounce Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and has suggested that South Africa has provided military assistance to Vladimir Putin. South Africa, meanwhile, persists in defending its affiliation with the nonaligned movement (an assembly of 120 nations eschewing alignment with any major power bloc).
It’s obviously relevant that the governing ANC shares a lengthy history with the former Soviet Union. The roots of that association go back to apartheid, when the Soviet Union provided the ANC with real political, diplomatic and material backing. This not only bolstered the ANC’s resilience and international standing, it also allowed it to exert immense pressure on the apartheid regime.
Of course, when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the ANC’s relationship with Russia underwent a transformation, adjusting to the new post-Cold War landscape. But despite this, the enduring bonds between the ANC and Russia continue to shape diplomatic engagements and ideological affinities.
Yet as the ramifications of the diplomatic dispute with the US unfurl, South Africa faces some substantial economic risks.
In particular, the prospect of diminished US investment warrants serious consideration. US ambassador to South Africa Reuben Brigety has reiterated the significance of this, highlighting that the country hosts 600 US enterprises which provide employment to nearly 220,000 people and generate revenue equal to 10% of South Africa’s GDP. Trade data from the South African Revenue Service shows that in 2022, the country’s exports to the US amounted to a hefty R179bn second only to the R188bn in exports to China.
Speculation is also mounting that South Africa may face suspension from the African Growth & Opportunity Act (Agoa), trade legislation inked into law in 2000. This act has benefited the country’s motor, citrus and wine industries but is set to expire in 2025, which adds urgency to this situation.
Yet the renewal of Agoa benefits hinges heavily on how South Africa navigates this diplomatic dispute, and the direction it takes on Russia. Already there are a number of events on the calendar including the forthcoming Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg, the Brics summit here and the biennial Agoa forum
which present risks to South Africa’s hopes of healing its relationship with the US.
And, of course, there’s the risk that a Republican candidate (perhaps even Donald Trump) may triumph in next year’s US presidential election, which could result in that country taking a more confrontational position as the 2025 deadline to renew Agoa draws nearer.
To be clear, South Africa needs all the help it can get. Our domestic challenges
sluggish growth, high joblessness, corruption and governance concerns have weakened the country’s socioeconomic fabric and undermined its potential as a regional economic powerhouse. Striking a delicate balance between historical alliances while forging new partnerships is imperative for South Africa to advance its national interests and economic aspirations, while also fulfilling international obligations. Nonetheless, addressing the risks to South Africa’s international relations requires a proactive stance. The country has a significant role to play in the rapidly evolving global order by promoting cooperation in areas such as sustainable development, climate change and regional stability. At home, prioritising effective governance, combating corruption and implementing structural reforms are crucial steps towards reviving growth and restoring investor confidence.
Internationally, the country must demonstrate strategic agility to enhance its economic prospects and attract investment, while ensuring its broader strategic interests remain intact.
But the key test for its foreign policy will be whether it can balance its commitment to nonalignment with the need to engage with the 21st century’s major powers.
On this score, how the Russian standoff plays out will be deeply revealing.