MASHATILE IS ON THE MOVE
While Ramaphosa dithers, the deputy president is presenting himself as a decisive man of the people
With his election to the ANC deputy presidency last December, Paul Mashatile has been gifted a horse and he is not wasting time with an examination of its teeth.
The deputy president is traversing the country, stepping up in parliament and in front of businesspeople, giving a word of advice here and soothing a worried brow there. Since his ascendance and his appointment as the country’s No 2 in March, the man has hardly stopped to celebrate that he had won two significant new positions. Instead, he is appearing all over the country as if he is still running for office.
Maybe he is. He is certainly here, there and everywhere. In an ANC that is led by a ditherer, he speaks and acts as if he will be an implementer. Soon.
Since the year began, Mashatile has got married, wooed ANC constituencies from the Eastern Cape to North West, and met constituents who are increasingly wondering why President Cyril Ramaphosa has seemed so out of touch with a country where he is supposedly in charge.
On May 19, for example, Mashatile charmed business leaders at the JSE as he spoke about “policy reforms as well as steps being taken to enhance investor confidence”. Just six days later, on May 25, Ramaphosa faced the same business leaders. They gave him a dressing-down about South Africa’s irrational support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and asked him to rethink South Africa’s foreign policy because of the damage it was causing to the country’s economy and image.
While Ramaphosa dithers, Mashatile is presenting himself as a decisive man of the people and as something of an action man for business. In just four days, from last Thursday to Sunday, Mashatile pronounced on land reform (it would be fast-tracked), load-shedding (emergency power would be procured), shaky coalitions (to be discussed at a national dialogue on coalition governments in the next two months), and a host of other matters.
Meanwhile, Ramaphosa was playing catch-up. He announced that he would confer new powers on Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, the minister for electricity he appointed in March, and that he had named three people to investigate the docking of the Russian ship Lady R in Simon’s Town.
Ramaphosa seems like a man who is catching up, the school laggard who delivers his homework late.
There is now no doubt that Mashatile is girding himself for the top job. But when and how will his opportunity come?
The ANC has thus far not removed from the state presidency a leader who is in charge of the party. Thabo Mbeki was shown the door after he lost the party presidency in 2007 and Zuma was escorted out after a similar loss in 2017. Essentially, the ANC does not like a coup d’état. It likes its rules the leader of the party is elected by members and can be removed only by a national conference. Thus, with secretary-general Fikile Mbalula becoming frustrated by Ramaphosa’s inaction, and with the backing of key ANC national executive members including Mashatile and Gwede Mantashe, it is possible that a national conference could be devised. Or the status of the national general council of the party, due in 2025, could be upgraded to that of a national conference (particularly if the party gets a bad result in next year’s election).
Or Ramaphosa could be tripped up by charges related to the Phala Phala scandal being laid against him. He would have to step down and Mashatile would be in pole position to take over.
Of course, Mashatile must be aware that Ramaphosa’s obituary has been written before. From Zuma to Arthur Fraser, the halls of the ANC are littered with those who have tried to take the man out and failed spectacularly. Ramaphosa is not to be underestimated. One thing is certain, however. In the ANC right now, and in South Africa in general, many are preparing for a future without him. The challenge for Mashatile is that the ANC is likely to do so badly in next year’s national and provincial elections he will inherit a muchdiminished party.
Worse for him, that party may well be in the opposition benches in 2029 perhaps never to return to power.
If that reality is something Mashatile considers, he would know that he must act fast to get into the ANC driving seat.