All about stability, or the lack of it
The various poll projections indicate the unpredictability of the final election results. The main problem (or is it the main “challenge”?) is that there is little basic principle at issue. The outcome and post-election situation is more unstable than ever.
The national ballot paper already contains more than 50 political parties and, to top it off, there are two national ballot papers and one provincial. (Pity the confused voters.)
Several of the participating parties are first-time chancers, many of whose listed candidates are an unknown quantity and quality. In previous elections some of the parties obtained (hopeful) initial support in their first participation, only to slump in the next election,
The same fate will befall Jacob Zuma’s MK Party. It has already expelled its founding member and is tainted by internal suspicion of spy infiltration and faked nomination signatures. Its 82-year-old leader’s health varies from “too sick to remain in prison” to “as healthy as a youngster”. Sometimes his health is so precarious that he has to fly to Russia, because he has no faith in South Africa’s medical specialists. What if he were to make it back to parliament — in spite of the constitution stating that a person who has been sentenced to jail for 12 months or longer without the option of a fine is disqualified from taking up membership of the legislature?
Recent by-elections in KwaZulu-Natal have indicated a resurgence of votes for the IFP, at the cost of ANC support. For the first time there is serious talk of untested coalitions and election charters whose parties are united in opposition to the ANC, but whose united stability in the post-election situation has yet to be tested.
A further unknown factor is the possibility (or probability) of sabotage if there were to be a change of government.
The hope for improvement with stability seems to be slender, especially because the quality and state of leadership in the security services do not appear to indicate a smooth potential takeover.