The campaign speech

In a year in which the internal battles of the ruling African National Congress will only intensify, President Jacob Zuma’s State of the Nation address last night will undoubtedly be one in which he praises his administration for the work they have done.

It will be a campaign speech, primarily directed at ANC members, suggesting that his faction has been able to work with opposing factions and delivered. The speech is most likely to suggest, to the ANC and the country, that we must trust him on his choice as his successor.

Of course, it won’t be that easy.

In broad strokes, as is the case with most of his SONAs, the president will outline his administration’s economic achievements. Reminding his audience that together, as a united front, the government was able to fend off a ratings downgrade.

He will signal that despite Pravin Gordhan not being his choice for finance minister, he is, for the sake of the ANC and the country, able to work with anyone for the sake of unity.

Yet the tragic death of 94 psychiatric patients in Gauteng will hopefully allow President Zuma to suggest fasttracking the National Health Insurance scheme. The Minister of Health, a big proponent of NHI, is on record for suggesting that had the NHI been in place, tragedies such as the one in Gauteng, would never have happened.

Students may be pleased to know that the crisis in higher education is another topic high on the agenda.

The political posturing of the president, though, will be something to look out for. More money for the sector is most likely to be made two weeks later in the budget speech. Nonetheless, will the president outrightly support students in their demand for free higher education – or will he be much more diplomatic and cover his minister’s back?

Basic education is bound to get a mention as well. But both ministers are no longer in the president’s inner circle.

The Jacob Zuma presidency will always be judged on how many jobs it created, given its genesis in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Consistently for the past six years, whenever he has taken to the podium to address the nation, jobs, investment in infrastructure, trade, building strong agricultural, manufacturing and tourism industries have been deliberated by number one. After all, as Bill Clinton campaigned, “It’s the economy, stupid!”

Small to medium enterprises and cooperatives will again be suggested as part of the answer to the chronic unemployment in the country. An unemployment situation that was sitting at a bloated 27% of the economic active population seeking employment in November 2016 is the highest in 13 years.

To address inequality and poverty, the national minimum wage and broadening social welfare will undoubtedly be mentioned.

Referring to his brainchild, the National Development Plan, the president will speak to the better beneficiation from the mines, ensuring a tight fiscal and financial regime and strongly advocate for the green and ocean economy.

Operation Phakisa, for example, will be highlighted, as the president has suggested before that the project had already unlocked R17 billion in both private and public sector investment in a matter of two years.

The election of Donald Trump, as president of the United States, will likely confirm South Africa’s foreign policy of looking east. President Zuma will most probably refer to our country’s role in the BRICS bank as well as strengthening ties, through investment and trade, with other emerging economies.

South Africa, as a matter of course, will need to prepare, South Africans in general usually look to the ANC’s 8 January statement to pre-empt the kind of policy stability or shifts the ANC government is planning to make in the country for the year, starting with SONA.

However, this year’s 8 January was almost solely about ANC unity.

We are not sure whether the Economic Freedom Fighters would disrupt again, nor are we certain that President Zuma will address any one of the controversies he has been embroiled in. What we can be guaranteed is that the speech will be about the internal politics of the ANC. The president will try and unite the ANC - but unite it behind his candidate.

•Wesley Seale lectures South African politics at the University Currently Known as Rhodes (UCKAR).