Outliers and contrarians... we need them too
We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. This ageless advice is from Albert Einstein – an oddity, unique being, a contrarian and an outlier.
An outlier is variously defined as ‘an observation point which is distant from other observations points’. Malcolm Gladwell popularised the social meaning of outliers in writing about how very few individuals achieve exceptional goals. A contrarian is someone predisposed to taking an opposing view, or an opponent of conventional wisdom, policies or practices.
Both outliers and contrarians tend to operate in a counter-intuitive universe.
Yet many of our accepted world views were unique, contrarian and even feared at some time. South Africa has enjoyed its share of contrarian luminaries – Laurens van der Post, Shaka Zulu and Nelson Mandela to name a few.
In 1914 Nicholas Kline summed up the fate of contrarians thus: ‘First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they attack you – and then they build monuments to you.’
Last week, Grahamstown enjoyed a few momentous days. But the exceptional was barely mentioned – like the unique process in appointing a leader to take charge and resolve the woes of Makana Municipality. Or the contro- versial (and contrarian) presentation of Moeletsi Mbeki, brother of former President Thabo Mbeki.
Instead, the fanfare was reserved for Trevor Manuel, South Africa’s long-serving ex Minister of Finance.
He dazzled with his charisma, intellect and ability to articulate on the most diverse of subjects. Manuel also related terrible experiences – harassment by the apartheid government, detention and even months of solitary confinement. Trevor Manuel is a deserving role model.
He left the audience with a call for the younger generation to embrace and support the Constitution and its principles.
Was it too much to have expected Manuel to admit some of the serious shortcomings of the Constitution and to encourage amendments to provide better individual protection from the excesses and failings of the state? Or more appropriate mechanisms to ensure accountability, direct representation and good governance?
A fearless man before 1994, Manuel experienced how dangerous it was to speak truth to power. Latterly, it seems much safer to speak power over truth. Is Trevor Manuel an outlier, or perhaps more of a romantic idealist and eloquent presenter of topical narratives?
It was left to the audacious contrarian Moeletsi Mbeki to speak out against prevailing policies. Suggesting South Af- rica was selectively anti-rich rather than pro-poor, Mbeki’s presentation demonstrated it was not the moneyed elite or white populace who controlled the economy.
He also provided surprising insights into the population groups who felt marginalised, prejudiced and discriminated against; according to him they were the elite and the destitute, not the general worker or middle-class.
Rather than redistribution of a shrinking pie, he concluded the way to grow and solve the economic challenges is uniquely South African in context, by suggesting an alliance between the elite and those struggling to make ends meet.
His arguments were convincing. One wonders how many were left pondering how different South Africa would have been if the younger Mbeki brother was President?
Like Einstein, Some contrarians are able to advance humanity in their lifetimes. One such individual is Bret Schundler whom I first met in the US after he had graduated from Harvard University. At just 32, Schundler was elected Mayor of Jersey City (the secondlargest metropole in New Jer- sey State with a property tax base of over R330 billion [US$ 26 billion]).
Incorruptible, passionate and different, in his decadelong tenure Schundler singlehandedly reversed the fortunes of a near bankrupt city to one of abundance, substantial job creation, surplus and an improved life for its citizens. He accomplished this by reducing or repealing property taxes and utility charges on businesses.
He privatised the management of water supply and was at the forefront of novel legislation allowing for publicprivate partnerships in school education.
Schundler innovated and introduced medical savings accounts for municipal employees. According to a Harvard University study [State of inner Cities Economies: New Learning -2006 (arch.)], under Schundler’s stewardship, Jersey City led the largest cities in the US in both job creation and poverty reduction.
The contrarian intuitively connects the missing narrative. For Bret Schundler, he took huge criticism by reducing taxes in a city which was technically bankrupt, and by privatising water supply management – temporarily adding to the high unemployment figures.
But he was vindicated. Making it easy and inexpensive to do business attracts companies and commerce. In turn, employees are needed and paid salaries – used to build and buy houses and groceries and lifestyles. And the hand of enterprise attracts those who can service a more abundant populace. After some short-term pain, Jersey City revenues soared because property values and economy grew. Schundler reduced taxes to increase taxes. It was a stroke of genius. Closer to home, the contrarian understands the sickness of intellectual and political laziness. South African economists are predicting a R50 billion tax revenue deficit this year. And less publicised is that Eskom is only selling 28GW of an installed electrical generating capacity of 44GW.
Was there ever any practical need for the post 2008 electricity blackouts?
Like his predecessor Pravin Gordhan, the incumbent Minister of Finance will likely further increase taxes on businesses and the wealthy in order to compensate for shrinking revenue.
Business and the wealthy will respond by moving and investing in more tax-friendly and business friendly countries. Raising taxes ultimately lowers tax revenue. And it’s the poor who suffer the most.
In response to lower electricity demand, Eskom is seek- ing further double-digit tariff increases to make up for the loss in revenue.
The contrarian intuits that people respond by becoming independent of monopolistic suppliers, moving off the grid, (or just moving) and reducing generated demand.
Eskom’s response will be to increase tariffs further to make up for their shrinking revenue. Raising prices does not increase demand.
Both the national treasury and Eskom seem to be more aware of short-term populism than their Olympic-pace race to the bottom.
Following a decade as Mayor of Jersey City, Bret Schundler continued his rise in public service and effectiveness. In 2010, he was appointed as the New Jersey Commissioner of Education by a landslide 35-2 vote.
Five months later, he came under political attack by Governor Chris Christie and was summarily dismissed.
Last month, Governor Christie became the least popular governor in the US, with approval ratings of just 15% , the lowest ever recorded in the history of New Jersey.
Bret Schundler may yet have another season, and perhaps a monument too?
• Ron Weissenberg is an international citizen and Grahamstown resident who started his first business at age 7. He is a Certified Director (SA) and mentors people and their enterprises.