Umnotho wakuleli ubhekene nengwadla yokushayeka futhi
Isibikezelo se-International Monetary Fund sisho ukuthi uhwebelwano lwamazwe lungase lwehle
INHLANGANO yamazwe omhlaba yezemali, i-International Monetary Fund (-IMF), ithi impi yamaRashiya nomakhelwane, i-Ukraine, nesimo somnotho wamaShayina kuzoba nomthelela ongemuhle emnothweni womhlaba wonke.
Lesi sibikezelo sale nhlangano esikhishwe kuleli viki, siyizindaba ezimbi njengoba umnotho womhlaba wonke ubusukhombisa izimpawu zokusimama emuva kokuhlaselwa yigciwane lokhuvethe.
Sisho ukuthi izinga lohwebelwano lwamazwe omhlaba lungase lwehle, okuyinkomba yokuthi isidingo somkhiqizo wakuleli othengiswa kwamanye amazwe nawo singase sehle. Sifika nje lesi sibikezelo, umnotho waseNingizimu Afrika usazama ukusukuma emuva kokuhlasela kokhuvethe.
Ngeledlule ibhange lezwe, i-South African Reserve Bank, libike ukuthi umnotho wakuleli kawukawabuyisi wonke amandla owawunawo ngaphambi kokuhlasela komkhuhlane. Lithi zintathu izingxenye zomnotho esezikhule zedlula amandla ezazinawo ngaphambi kokufika kokhuvethe. Lezo zingxenye, ngezolimo, ezokumbiwa phansi, nengxenye yomnotho engakhiqizi mpahla. Ingxenye engakhiqizi mpahla ixube ezokuthengiswa kwezimpahla, ezentilasipoti, ezokuxhumana ngomakhalekhukhwini nezinye izidingo.
Ezolimo zisimamiswe yizimvula ezibezinhle kule minyaka emibili edlule, kanti ezokumbiwa phansi zithole umfutho ngokwenyuka kwemali yentengo yomkhiqizo wazo. Ukusimama kwengxenye yomnotho wezwe engakhiqizi mpahla kufike phezu kwezingqinamba kwezentilasipoti nezohwebo. Leli bhange lithi ezentilasipoti nezohwebo kulindeleke ukuthi zivuseleleke maduze nje, njengoba ukuhlasela kokhuvethe sekwehlile.
Ingxenye ekhiqiza izimpahla, okusho amafemu ikakhulu, yona sekusilele kancane nje ukuba ibuyele emandleni eyayinawo ngaphambi kokufika kokhuvethe.
Izinga lokukhula komnotho wakuleli belivame ukulandelana ncamashi nelokukhula komnotho womhlaba wonke jikelele. Nokho lokhu kwanqamuka eminyakeni engaphezulu kweyishumi edlule, ngenxa yezingqinamba leli elaqala ukubhekana nazo.
Phakathi kwazo singabala ukungabaza kwabatshali bemali ukufaka imali kuleli ngoba bekhala ngokuthi uhulumeni ushintsha imigomo ephathelene namabhizinisi nsukuzonke. Enye kwaba wukwanda kokunqamuka kukagesi ngenxa yokwehluleka kwenkampani yakwa-Eskom ukukhiqiza ugesi owanele izidingo zezwe.
Ukunqamuka kukagesi kusaqhubeka nanamuhla. Ibhange lezwe lithi ukwanda kokunqamuka kukagesi kuyingqinamba enkulu ebambezela ukwenyuswa kwezinga lokukhula komnotho wezwe.
Liphinde libeke ukuthi ezinye izingqinamba ezikhinyabeza umnotho wezwe wukwehla kwezinga lokutshalwa kwemali kuleli, nokungabi bikho kwabantu abanele abanamakhono emisebenzi.
Phezu kwala mahlalakhona, kunezinye izingqinamba ezilokhu zivakashela leli. Eyakamuva nje wumonakalo kwingqalasizinda odalwe yizikhukhula ezisanda kuhlasela isifundazwe iKwaZulu-Natal, ikakhulukazi izindawo ezisogwini lolwandle. Umonakalo odalwe yilezi zikhukhula umise ukusebenza kwezingxenye ezithile zomnotho.
Inkampani ephethe izitimela ezithutha impahla kanye namachweba, i-Transnet, isimise ukusebenza kwechweba laseThekwini ngenxa yomonakalo odalwe yizikhukhula. Leli chweba libaluleke kakhulu emnothweni wezwe ngoba impahla engaphezulu kukahhafu ethunyelwa kwamanye amazwe nengena kuleli, idlula kulo. Zonke lezi zingqinamba zizoba nomthelela kwezomnotho kuleli.
I-IMF ibika ukuthi impi yaseUkraine inomthelela emnothweni womhlaba wonke. Zimbili izizathu zalokhu.
Esokuqala wukwenyuka kwemali yentengo yokudla njengoba la mazwe alwayo engabakhiqizi abakhulu bezitshalo ezifana nokolo okwenziwa ngawo ufulawa nezinye izidlo. Abuye abengabakhiqizi abakhulu bomanyolo owenziwa ngamakhemikhali, osekuyinhlobo esetshenziswa kakhulu ngabalimi. Ukwenyuka kwentengo kamanyolo kugcina kwenyuse imali yentengo yokudla.
Isizathu sesibili wukwenyuka kwemali yentengo kawoyela onga-hluziwe. Izwe laseRashiya lingelinye labakhiqizi bakawoyela negesi (gas) okuthengwa kakhulu ngamazwe aseEurope.
Phezu komthelela wale mpi, i-IMF ikhala ngesimo sasezweni lamaShayina, lapho sekuneziqubu eziningi zokuvumbuka kwegciwane lokhuvethe. Lokhu sekuphoqe izikhulu zaleliya zwe ukuthi zimise ukusebenza komnotho ezingxenyeni zezwe ezithintekile.
Ezinye zalezi zindawo zingabakhiqizi abakhulu bezimpahla ezithengiswa kwamanye amazwe. Lokhu kulindeleke ukuthi kudale ukushoda kwalezi zimpahla, okuzolandelwa wukwenyuka kwemali ezithengiswa ngayo.
Uma kwenyuka imali yentengiso emazweni, amabhange amazwe ayaphoqeleka ukuthi enyuse inzalomali ukuze kwehliswe ukwehla kwamandla emali. Ukwenyuswa kwenzalomali, kusho ukwenyuka kwezindleko zo-kukhokhela imizi kulabo ababoleka imali emabhange.
Nosomabhizinisi ngokunjalo kumele bakhokhe inzalomali ethe xaxa, okwenza zenyuke izindleko zabo. Umthelela walokhu wukwehla kwezinga lokukhula komnotho ngoba ukwenyuka kwezindleko zokuboleka imali emabhange, kusho ukwehla kwemali abathengi abangayisebenzisa ukuthenga izidingo zempilo.
Isimo saseShayina singaba nomthelela omkhulu emnothweni wamazwe athengisela leliya zwe okumbiwa phansi. Naleli lingelinye labathengisi abakhulu bezokumbiwa phansi. Lokhu kungasho ukwehla komkhiqizo wezokumbiwa phansi wakuleli othunyelwa eChina, nokwehla kwemali yentengo yawo.
Kuzokhumbuleka ukuthi leli lisanda kuhlomula kakhulu ngokwenyuka kwemali yentengo yomkhiqizo wezokumbiwa phansi, okwandise kakhulu imali yentela kahulumeni eqoqwe onyakeni wezemali ka-2021/22.