Zuma’s Cabinet reshuffle inaugurates
An entrenched private sector and an active civil society are unlikely to yield to a kleptocracy
Historians reviewing the recent short span of history, the past 50 years, or even the longue durée, over 200 years, would agree that national liberation movements fit into a larger pattern of historical change that has not yielded a fundamental break with colonialism and, in the case of South Africa, with apartheid as well.
The movements have brought more of the same, or even degeneration, to their societies. Southern Africa has a litany of examples but President Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe is considered a classic case of revolution derailed by its own leadership.
President Jacob Zuma’s recent Cabinet reshuffle has inaugurated our Zimbabwe moment. It has haunted our subconscious, but now it looms large on the national stage. The morbid signs have been there for a while as the looting and state capture has intensified. But the reshuffle has sunk the Zuma ship, hurtling it to the bottom of the ocean, with the ruin of all in sight.
One would have expected the oldest national liberation movement in Africa, with its intergenerational experience and strong traditions, to have prevented a single individual from substituting for the nation, the state and the party.
But, on the other hand, the Zuma bandwagon, with its origins in his rape trial more than 10 years ago, portended a constitutional and political crisis, particularly with his brand of patriarchal, ethnic and authoritarian populism and by engendering a vicious intolerance in the ranks of the ANC-led tripartite alliance.
Zuma’s rise fitted in perfectly with the power concentrated in the presidency, both because of constitutional fiat and because of former president Thabo Mbeki’s centralising approach.
Zuma’s control of the presidency and his factional hold on the ANC has given him the confidence to sink South Africa for his own selfish interests.
But is this the endgame for us all? Are we going to live through the destruction of our young democratic institutions and the rolling back of our rights? Are we condemned to live through more than three decades of kleptocratic takeover of the state and economy, as in Zimbabwe, and its eventual collapse?
South Africa is not exceptional but it is also not Zimbabwe. Many commentators have begun to suggest that Zuma has it all worked out strategically. This is an all-knowing and calculating strongman who will not be pushed back by any social force.
Pallo Jordan, one of the most brilliant intellectual minds in the ANC, said a few years ago that South Africa has a well-developed private sector and civil society, which distinguished it from Zimbabwe, and that these will serve as a bulwark against regression.
There are also other features such as our geopolitical relations, the complexity of the interlocking political relationships in the ANC-led alliance and our robust intelligentsia.
Geopolitically, under Zuma, South Africa has been isolating itself from the broader African context through a state practice that is increasingly xenophobic in managing refugees, migrants and immigrants.
But a backlash is growing in the continent, which will limit how far Zuma can retreat into the old boys club in Africa.
In the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) bloc, we are a small player among mega-states that have been skewing our economic priorities.
China is content with not overreaching or compromising its neomercantilist interests with South Africa. On the other hand, Russia has been gaining a global reputation as a mafia state, which is disposed to meddling even in Western democracies.
This will have widespread implications for a Zuma regime in bed with Russia on nuclear energy, for example. It is very likely the entanglement will be about reducing the Zuma regime to a client state, further constraining the president’s choices.
But, most crucial at this stage in terms of geopolitical relations is the unplugging of foreign investment. An exodus out of government bonds, equities, real estate and from the productive economy will be calamitous for an economy struggling to reboot. An economy in recession will mean lower revenue collection, continued high unemployment and limited economic room to manoeuvre.
Fiscal populism in this context will not work but will merely bankrupt the state, deepening its legitimacy crisis.
The private sector, though enjoying immense structural power because of a globalised economy, has had a contradictory relationship with the post-apartheid state. It has not been able to lead the state and neither has the state been able to direct the sector’s capital, despite huge concessions made to capital.
Although black economic empowloss