Uneasy anticipation in Nairobi – and why is Mbeki so silent?

A month ago, Chris Msando publicly assured Kenyans — and the rest of us who live here — that on his watch the election would not be rigged. Msando was murdered this week. He was the information and communication manager for the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission.

His body was found on Monday, with one limb missing and bearing signs of torture. Although we don’t know who killed Msando, and probably won’t before the vote on Tuesday, his death has fuelled fears that Kenya is heading into a dangerous and volatile period; a repeat of the ethnic violence that followed the 2007 poll.

Nairobi’s residents are taking precautions. Many parents have taken their children upcountry, as Kenyans refer to their village homes, where they feel it is safer. My expatriate friends are no different. Most have chosen to take their holidays in their home countries and have left or are leaving within the next few days.

For those of us planning to stay in the city, we too have prepared, just in case things go wrong. We’ve stocked up on gas, candles and canned foods. Equally important, aware of how communications were interrupted during the Ugandan elections, many of us have downloaded virtual private networks so we can be in touch with loved ones. And we are ensuring we have power banks charged in case of power outrages.

I have often said to my Kenyan friends that ethnicity is to Kenyans what race is to South Africans. People talk about it a lot, but it’s not always the most accurate lens.

During last year’s municipal elections in South Africa, many black people in the metropolitans seemed to have ignored the often repeated mantra that the Democratic Alliance is a party serving white interests.

Similarly in Kenya in 2017, the tensions between the incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta’s Kikuyu ethnic group and the opposition leader Raila Odinga’s Luo are a little less palpable than they were in 2013.

Equally, there is no guarantee that the Kalenjin, who belong to the same ethnic community as Deputy President William Ruto, will stand firmly with the governing party — especially given that another leading Kalenjin politician, Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto, decamped to the opposition coalition.

What is clear though is that voices of reason across ethnic groups seem to agree that they would like free and fair elections and will not, as happened in 2013, “accept and move on” if there are any electoral irregularities.

In 2013, when the shock of the post-election violence of the 2007 elections was still fresh, the national focus seemed to be on maintaining peace.

This time around conversations with friends suggest that the absence of all-out war may not necessarily be peace. A statement that I hear often is that citizens are like donkeys, and take a lot of unnecessary abuse from politicians.

But as I walked from the supermarket one afternoon, I heard one young man yelling to another: “Punde amechoka” — the donkeys are tired.

There is one South African in Nairobi who should be doing more to dispel this general sense of unease that permeates Kenya.

But at the time of writing, Thabo “There is no crisis in Zimbabwe” Mbeki has said nothing about Msando’s death. Mbeki is the head of the African Union election observer mission to Kenya, but his silence is ominous: Just how bad must things get before he and the AU find their voice?