The divided nation

On a superficial level, this year’s election in Kenya is a repeat of the one held in 2013. It is, once again, a tight, unpredictable contest. It is another face-off between Uhuru Kenyatta, now the incumbent, and perennial challenger Raila Odinga. It is again defined by the politics of ethnicity, and occurs amid fears that the result will be violently contested.

In 2013, those fears were largely misplaced. Kenyatta won narrowly, and Kenya proved that it had matured as a democracy since the unprecedented bloodletting that followed the 2007 vote, in which at least 1 000 people were killed.

But a lot has changed in four years. Despite the superficial similarities with 2013, this election takes place in a different, more dangerous environment.

Most obviously, the violence has already started. Since the beginning of the year, several people have been killed in politically motivated attacks; others have narrowly escaped assassination attempts; and there have been violent clashes between supporters of rival political parties. In one especially ominous incident, the body of Chris Msando, a senior official at the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, was discovered this week. He had been tortured and murdered.

Another major concern is how the institutions designed to protect Kenya’s democracy have been systematically degraded. The integrity of the electoral commission has been repeatedly called into question by the opposition, who claim its rulings have favoured the government. At the same time, the president’s supporters have accused the judiciary of bias towards the opposition.

In the run-up to the vote, journalists have been arrested, harassed and intimidated, compromising their ability to act as an independent watchdog. Pressure on civil society is so bad that the United Nations