The foregone conclusion
called on the Kenyan government to halt the “systematic and deliberate pattern to crack down on civil society groups which challenge governmental policies, educate voters, investigate human rights abuses and uncover corruption”.
The electoral dynamics have shifted too. Kenya’s 2010 Constitution provided for the “devolution” of some powers from national to local governments, resulting in a large increase in the number and importance of local government posts. When Kenyans choose their president on Tuesday, they will also vote on who gets to occupy these powerful — and potentially lucrative — positions.
This last point is key, and may explain why, despite all these problems, Kenya is unlikely to witness a repeat of the bloodletting in 2007 and 2008.
“Despite an increase in volatility compared to 2013, it is still likely that 2017’s race will be more like its predecessor than 2007. Although the behaviour of politicians during and after the poll will be key, my view is still that protests are more likely to occur through the courts than the streets,” said Ronak Gopaldas, head of country risk at Rand Merchant Bank. “Although there could be a number of flashpoints, sporadic localised violence rather than countrywide unrest is more of a concern.”
The latest — albeit not especially reliable — opinion polls suggest that neither Kenyatta nor Odinga have enough support to win the election outright. This will force a runoff election in September — and another few weeks of anxious anticipation.