‘Cyril is in a lot of trouble’
The president is losing the plot as Magashule takes battle for control of the ANC to the branches where he has the upper hand
Ace Magashule was arrested on corruption charges. He didn’t step down. This is despite the ANC’S resolution that people in this exact situation need to lead by example. Instead, the fight for control of the ruling party is going to its branches.
Magashule is said to be betting on the 20 regional and provincial elective conferences the party needs to hold ahead of its crucial national general council meeting, set for April next year.
Sources inside the party say this is where the battle will be lost or won.
The deep divisions in the ANC have spread beyond the slates of the 54th national conference in 2017, with new alliances being configured ahead of the party’s 2022 elective meeting.
The first major confrontation is expected at the party’s national executive committee (NEC) meeting set for the end of November over the arrest of secretary general Magashule, but a decision on whether he should stand aside from his post is unlikely to be made. Other issues of contention include fiscal prudence and how some policy decisions have been implemented and others not.
After being granted bail of R200 000 last Friday, Magashule made it clear in a televised interview that this was his chosen path. He said he would only stand aside from his post — in line with party conference resolutions and a NEC decision affirming them — if told to do so by the party’s branches.
This means his fight will move to the process of holding branch general meetings ahead of the
17 regional and three provincial conferences, which were put on hold because of the Covid- 19 pandemic.
At these, Magashule’s supporters will push to ensure that it is their people, and not supporters of President Cyril Ramaphosa, who make the cut as delegates to the conferences — and the national general council.
The battle will also influence who makes it as the ANC nominee councillors for next year’s local government elections, because the victorious faction will then decide who the party sends to council.
Ace’s upper hand
At present the Magashule faction, which controls the party machinery, appears to have the upper hand.
“Cyril is in a lot of trouble and he is aware,” said a source close to the CR17 camp.
The source explained that many meetings are being held and talk of creating a narrative that Ramaphosa was behind the arrest of Magashule. The strategy appears to be working. “The SG [secretary general] wants to create this idea that it was Cyril
who did this to him and now the talk is around how this will lead to the same situation Jacob [Zuma] created with [Thabo] Mbeki. Look, if Cyril wanted to he could have stopped the arrests, but we are beyond that point now.”
He said the national general council will be the ultimate battleground for the heart and soul of the party. All efforts now are moving to the branches, regions and provinces.
A national executive committee member said that if any elections were to be held at branch level now, Ramaphosa would lose. Two other provincial leaders agreed with this view.
“It’s deeper than issues of personalities now. It’s entrenched in the strategic approach to where we want to take the ANC. The party’s processes are so important and they must be followed or else things will fall apart.”
The NEC member warned: “The president must make time for the party to be able to survive this, or else it’s done.”
A North West party leader said their work was now focused on capturing members and building branch
support for their slate.
He said: “Ace’s people are infiltrating everywhere.
“The whole party is divided and from that division, SG will thrive and he will win.”
Membership system crucial
The efficiency of the ANC’S digital membership system, introduced to deal with the problem of membership fraud that was so rampant in the build-up to the 2012 and 2017 conferences, will be central to what happens at the regional and provincial conferences.
The new digital system allows members to join the party online, and is aimed at preventing gatekeeping and bulk- buying of memberships.
Earlier this year the ANC in both the Western Cape and KwazuluNatal expressed concerns about the efficiency of the new membership system and delays that had caused backlogs in the branch general meetings processes.
In the Free State, where pro- and anti-magashule factions took to the streets ahead of his court appearance on corruption charges last Friday, both sides are waiting for the outcome of the NEC meeting.
Mohlolo Sima, one of the organisers of the anti-magashule marches, said they would wait to see what happens at the meeting before making their next move.
“We are waiting, with a huge amount of interest and expectation, for the NEC to act against Ace. We will then take things from there,” he said.
Moves in the provinces
In Kwazulu- Natal, where seven regions have to hold their conferences ahead of the national general council, the national political battle has begun to play itself out.
On Wednesday, the premier and ANC chairperson, Sihle Zikalala, implemented a mini cabinet reshuffle, moving finance MEC Ravi Pillay to the economic development portfolio, held thus far by ANC provincial treasurer Nomusa Dube-ncube. Pillay also replaced Dube-ncube as leader of government business in the provincial legislature.
Although the move has been punted by Zikalala as advancing transformation and building capacity to drive economic reconstruction in the province, insiders say it is aimed at stopping Dube-ncube from using the portfolio to build her profile ahead of contesting the post of provincial chairperson.
Zikalala is backing Ramaphosa for a second term, while Dube-ncube is understood to have aligned herself with the Magashule camp nationally.
“This is all about the next term. Nomusa has been campaigning to replace Sihle using the department. Economic development has a huge budget and a massive public profile,” said a provincial executive committee (PEC) member, who asked not to be named.
“Moving her to finance takes away that and gives Sihle more control. That is why he has also appointed Ravi as leader of government business.”
The PEC member said Dube-ncube backed Nkosazana Dlamini-zuma in her presidential campaign in 2017.
Other groupings in the province were also talking to ANC treasurer Paul Mashatile about backing him for a run at the presidency in 2022, including the grouping led by ethekwini secretary Bheki Ntuli and Thabani Nyawose.