Cracks show in Ramaphosa faction
A meeting to finalise a Ramaphosa slate was boycotted by some provincial leaders, with those who attended annoyed by the list, which excluded the president’s key allies
President Cyril Ramaphosa could be facing a revolt from his provincial allies after a resolution by his inner circle to cast out some key figures in his campaign. The faction has instead backed surprising names to campaign alongside him at the ANC’S December conference.
Ramaphosa allies in provinces are said to be mystified by a final line-up that circulated on Wednesday evening. It featured Senzo Mchunu as deputy president, Gwede Mantashe as national chair, Fikile Mbalula as secretary general, Gwen Ramokgopa as the deputy secretary general and ANC general manager Fébé Potgieter-gqubule as the treasurer general.
The list, which was originally crafted during a Sunday meeting by Ramaphosa allies, initially featured Tina Joemat-pettersson as the treasurer general. This changed after another meeting, which is said to have taken place at Kempton Park in the east of Johannesburg on Tuesday afternoon.
According to insiders, several Ramaphosa allies walked out of the Kempton Park meeting in protest against the arranged slate.
Several provincial and regional leaders, who have pronounced on Ramaphosa, have decried the list with Limpopo and Eastern Cape leaders vowing to stick to their plan.
Limpopo has endorsed Ramaphosa alongside Paul Mashatile as deputy president, Phumulo Masualle as secretary general and Stan Mathabatha as the national chairperson.
The Eastern Cape is adamant that it will continue to lobby for its chairperson, Oscar Mabuyane, to be elected for the position of deputy president ahead of Mchunu.
The Eastern Cape is considered Ramaphosa’s strongest ally but the new development could tamper with the relationship.
Another insider and national executive committee member said the recent move by Ramaphosa’s national core allies signalled that they had not moved from factions of the 2017 ANC conference.
“As a consequence they have missed the realignments that have taken place since Nasrec on the ground. There are comrades who did not work together before Nasrec but worked together after. Jomo Sibiya and Mdumiseni Ntuli realigned and the same goes with other comrades who are on the ground.
“The problem with [the] Ramaphosa national core, which is led by ministers and those in the Union Buildings, is that it’s stuck in 2017 and that has had a negative impact on the organisation because everyone is viewed on the basis of where they were in Nasrec.”
Any kink in the Ramaphosa reelection race will stand to benefit Zweli Mkhize, who has been lobbying provinces such as Limpopo to back his campaign to become president. The party insider argued that by alienating provinces that are crucial to him, Ramaphosa could see a realignment in provinces such as Kwazulu-natal, Limpopo and the Eastern Cape.
“The insistence by them to put Gwede as chair, they are running into problems. To secure Stan, Limpopo may have to align with [provincial secretary Bheki] Mtolo in Kwazulunatal, which means they would have to drop Ramaphosa.
“This could very well happen even with Eastern Cape. Their insistence on Senzo means they are antagonising Oscar. Those aligned with Oscar will have to find other allies, which may not agree with Ramaphosa as president.
“The other question becomes, where does it put those who support Paul [Mashatile]?”
Mashatile is said to be still shopping for a candidate to support. His interest to become president sooner rather than later are best placed with the Ramaphosa faction.
There has been growing murmur in the ANC that Ramaphosa will not make it to the 2024 elections because of allegations levelled against him in the Phala Phala game farm robbery matter. This would be the quickest way for Mashatile to take over as president.
Another ANC leader who has been rebuffed by the Ramaphosa faction is Mdumiseni Ntuli. He has been largely thought to be part of the Ramaphosa circle. But a high-ranking leader in the Ramaphosa faction dismissed this notion.
“Mdu is not one of us. He disagreed with us on step-aside, he is not even getting support from the PEC [provincial executive committee] in Kwazulu-natal. He gets support from some of us but others don’t regard him as one of us. He consistently has fought with us at NEC meetings. He aligned himself with people like Stan [Mathabatha] against the step-aside decision. There is nothing about him that says he is part of the renewal team.”
The leader added that the decision was to go with Mbalula because there was strong resentment over the “opportunist” role of his campaigning. “When we needed Ntuli’s support we didn’t get it. Mbalula is the only person who can beat him and I believe he will,” they said, arguing that Ntuli was receiving support from Mashatile and Nomvula Mokonyane.
The high ranking Ramaphosa ally said that although Mashatile had support on the ground, his supporters had aligned him with “shady” characters such as Limpopo’s Mathabatha and Mokonyane.
“Yes, people might feel alienated, but this is round one. We are not saying, ‘These are the people you must vote for at a conference.’ There is a good argument for Senzo Mchunu because Paul Mashatile is nominated widely. You have to think about who else you want nominated. The PEC in Kwazulu-natal are so bitter about Ntuli. They are saying, ‘Anyone other than Ntuli’. They initially thought Ntuli was part of us but in discussion they now know …”
The Sunday meeting was the first sign that the Ramaphosa faction — commonly known as the renewal faction — is disintegrating.
Eastern Cape provincial secretary Lulama Ngcukayitobi and Northern Cape chair Zamani Saul were said to be against the new slate. One insider said Ngcukayitobi left the meeting “annoyed” by the proposed slate.
Denying attending the meeting, Saul said: “I won’t attend meetings that decide on slates. I’m waiting for the BGMS [branch general meetings] to be concluded in the province. I have the greatest respect for the views of the branches and the PEC collective I’m leading with.”
But two ANC insiders who attended the meeting said Saul had been there and had objected to the proposed slate because it did not reflect the will of the branches and provinces. Saul is said to have called for another meeting, which then took place on Tuesday.
Ngcukayitobi did not respond to the Mail & Guardian’s questions.
The insiders said those who did not attend the Sunday meeting included the Mpumalanga and Limpopo leaders. It’s understood that only the Sedibeng region in Gauteng was at the meeting.
The insiders said NEC members Angie Motshekga, Derek Hanekom and Mondli Gungubele championed the composition of the slate.
Motshekga is said to have argued for Joemat-pettersson to be the treasurer general position.
The insider said: “A lot of people boycotted the meeting. Mpumalanga is clear they want Ronald [Lamola]. There is also a view which questions the inclusion of Senzo Mchunu because some feel that he will not even come with a third of his province. At least Oscar [Mabuyane] comes with a majority of his own province. If you look at the list, who is coming with what? Only Gwede can depend on the Eastern Cape with the help of Oscar on that list.”
Ngcukayitobi is said to have argued that it would be a hard sell for the Eastern Cape branches to support Mchunu.
“Even if we had introduced them early, there is no Western Cape, Limpopo, Mpumalanga. How do you win a conference with this line-up?” a Ramaphosa ally said.
The M&G also understands that Ramaphosa’s national core allies have made attempts to dissuade Mabuyane from contesting the December elections but Eastern Cape regional leaders are against it.
“It has caused uproar, branches won’t accept that,” an Eastern Cape regional leader said.
Gungubele and Hanekom are said to be heading the Ramaphosa campaign and pulling rank over provincial leaders.