Demolition and desperate revival
The work of both Mbeki and Manuel to ensure economic stability was undone during the Zuma years — although Zuma inherited the country during the worst economic global crisis to hit the world after the great depression of the 1930s.
During his tenure, South Africa saw 12 cabinet reshuffles, with one costing the economy more than R500 billion, when he appointed Des van Rooyen as financial minister, replacing Nhlanhla Nene.
The National Prosecuting Authority, the South African Police Service, the Scorpions and the South African Revenue Service were decimated during Zuma’s tenure, along with the intelligence services, which were used to the benefit of Zuma’s business allies.
The Zondo commission’s findings were scathing of the former president and many of those who served in cabinet under him — and of the governing party for its failure to intervene and its complicity in the looting of the state.
“President Zuma enabled, indirectly, the members of the Gupta family as businesspeople to occupy a place of prominence over other businessmen, to the detriment of the empowerment legislative imperative of South Africa,” Chief Justice Raymond Zondo said in his report.
“He, as president, abused his office for his own benefit, that of his son and that of his friends, the Guptas. He placed himself in a situation of a conflict of interest and abused his position as president of the country.”
Zuma has been credited for having led the fight against the HIV/AIDS pandemic.
The Institute of Race Relations report said that during the Zuma presidency, life expectancy increased from 58.8 years in 2007 to 64.3 in 2015 while the death rate fell from 11.6 to 9.6 over the same period.
On World Aids Day in 2009, Zuma announced a new approach to the treatment and management of HIV and Aids, which included a new treatment regime. This led to South Africa having the biggest treatment programme in the world with more than 3.9 million people being treated by August 2017.
Hiv-positive South Africans had access to antiretroviral drugs, which led to increase in life expectancy and low levels of mother-to-child HIV transmission rates.
Zuma built two universities, the Sol Plaatje University in the Northern Cape and the University of Mpumalanga. He separated the department of education into two departments, one focusing on basic education and the second on higher education and training. This was applauded by even his biggest rival and predecessor, Mbeki.
In his last days as ANC president, Zuma announced expanded access to free education for children from poor households.
But Zuma left behind a state looted by his cronies, a dysfunctional police force and prosecution service and a trail of decimated state-owned entities that continue to place strain on the fiscus after his recall by the ANC in February 2018.
The culture of impunity created during Zuma’s tenure has remained a problem for his successor — and the state — long after his removal from office by the party he once led.
The Ramaphosa era
Never before had any president come in with as much public goodwill as President Cyril Ramaphosa, including Mandela.
Ramaphosa received support from all corners of society. Politicians and civil society were yearning for change after the Zuma years, which almost brought the country to collapse. The newly elected president had promised transparency, rooting out corruption, the recovery of the economy and the renewal of the ANC.
He became a beacon of hope for the nation, which had been under the abuse of politicians and their business handlers for the last nine years of Zuma’s presidency.
Unlike his predecessor, the new ANC president was not afraid to criticise the party for having failed in its project to advance South Africa.
In his inaugural State of the Nation address in 2018, he promised to clean house, which would include an overhaul of governance in ministries and agencies such as the National Prosecuting Authority and the South African Revenue Service.
He did just that.
The National Prosecuting Authority received a new head, Shamila Batohi. He appointed Edward Kieswetter at the South African Revenue Service, created the Investigating Directorate to investigate corruption and the Special Investigating Unit became more aggressive in its investigations.
Internally, Ramaphosa’s term resulted in the disbandment of ANC leagues which were used to advocate for Zuma. They would be resuscitated by his ally, Fikile Mbalula, after he was elected as ANC secretary general.
But the goodwill Ramaphosa experienced would dwindle. His support from the trade union movement is at an all-time low. And his consultative approach to leadership lost him favour with the business community, which wanted results.
Ramaphosa’s promise to unbundle Eskom and end load-shedding did not materialise. According to the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, South Africa had more blackouts in 2022 than at any other time.
The state-owned entities have failed to recover under the Ramaphosa-led government, with Transnet receiving a R47 billion guarantee from the treasury at the beginning of December being the latest evidence of this.
Ramaphosa was criticised for having created a kitchen cabinet at the Union Buildings. He took the State Security Agency, which had been hollowed out during Zuma’s term, to Pretoria.
Despite these initiatives, the security cluster failed to proactively anticipate the July 2021 unrest, which saw the country losing billions at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. In the high level report on the violence and looting during the eight days of unrest, it was found that factional battles in the ANC had a direct effect on the riots. The report also said Ramaphosa’s cabinet should take overall responsibility for the unrest.
The pandemic was a big test for Ramaphosa. As powerful nations hoarded vaccines, Ramaphosa demanded that they share the lifesaving vaccines with Africa.
But his optimism and naivety towards his comrades during that time meant that he failed to put strong measures in place in anticipation of corruption during the Covid recovery programme.
Some in the ANC’S high-ranking members — including then health minister Zweli Mkhize — were implicated and would later resign from their posts after it emerged that they were involved in corruption related to Covid-19 funds.
Despite having implemented some of the state capture commission’s recommendations, including its public procurement processes, none of those implicated in widespread looting of the state’s assets have been convicted.
In June, Zondo said he had seen no changes to protect the country from rampant corruption and the kind of state capture engineered by the Gupta family.
“If another group of people were to do exactly what the Guptas did to pursue state capture, parliament would still not be able to stop it. That is simply because I have seen nothing that has changed.
“If parliament won’t be able to protect the people’s interests, who will protect the people?” Zondo asked.
South Africa was placed on the grey list in February by the Financial Action Task Force for its shortcomings in tackling illicit financial flows and combatting terror financing. This led to the European Union adding South Africa to a group of highrisk countries.
The World Bank’s report found that the country’s high crime rates damage the economy and contribute to the misallocation and inefficient use of resources, inflicting an estimated cost of at least 10% of GDP every year.
Thirty years after taking power, the party that replaced the National Party seems to be on a similar arc — albeit for very different reasons.
As South Africa prepares to go to the polls next year, a number of surveys have indicated that the ANC may, for the first time, lose the parliamentary majority it has held nationally since 1994.
The party faces a strong likelihood of losing Gauteng and Kwazulunatal to the opposition Multiparty Charter for South Africa — and of being forced into the opposition benches in both provincial legislatures. Surveys conducted throughout the year polled the ANC in the mid-40%, but a survey in early December suggested it would take from 48% to 53% nationally — a more positive picture for the governing party than surveys in October and November.
The ANC being forced to constitute another coalition government was not the outcome that Mandela and his colleagues in the first administration would have predicted — or hoped for — in 1994, but is one that the decades of corruption, infighting, worsening economic conditions, poor policy choices and failing service delivery may have made inevitable.