riskMap anal­y­sis of sub-sa­ha­ran african coun­tries for 2013



The coun­try has one of the con­ti­nent’s most lib­eral con­sti­tu­tions and most at­trac­tive in­vest­ment regimes. Al­though its cor­rup­tion lev­els re­main among the low­est in sub­Sa­ha­ran Africa, cor­rup­tion al­le­ga­tions have in­creased in tan­dem with for­eign in­vestor in­ter­est in off­shore oil and gas ex­plo­ration. De­spite rich min­eral re­sources, prospects for rapid eco­nomic growth are limited, and the re­dis­tri­bu­tion of white-owned land re­mains a source of ten­sion.


Ex­ter­nal po­lit­i­cal threats to An­gola’s regime are limited. Con­trol Risks con­sid­ers that the cur­rent po­lit­i­cal or­der is largely sus­tain­able while oil rev­enues con­tinue to grow. There­after, the regime will be sub­jected to an in­creas­ing range of po­lit­i­cal risks. In the mean­time, a com­bi­na­tion of An­gola’s re­liance on ex­ter­nally sourced oil rev­enues and press­ing de­mands for so­cial de­vel­op­ment will con­tinue to gen­er­ate ten­sions and could af­fect the op­er­at­ing en­vi­ron­ment for for­eign in­vestors.


Tan­za­nia is one of sub-Sa­ha­ran Africa’s most po­lit­i­cally sta­ble coun­tries. Since aban­don­ing so­cial­ism in the ‘80s, it has in­sti­tuted sig­nif­i­cant re­forms and im­prove­ments to the busi­ness en­vi­ron­ment. The sta­tus of the semi­au­tonomous ar­chi­pel­ago of Zanz­ibar re­mains the main source of po­lit­i­cal fric­tion.


Zam­bia is one of Africa’s most lib­er­alised economies, al­though per­sis­tent cor­rup­tion, a cul­ture of busi­ness se­crecy and an in­ad­e­quate in­fra­struc­ture have pre­vi­ously ham­pered op­por­tu­ni­ties for for­eign busi­ness. Pres­i­dent Sata suc­ceeded Banda on the back of a strong anti-cor­rup­tion cam­paign, putting pres­sure on him to pur­sue all al­le­ga­tions of cor­rup­tion and es­tab­lish sys­tems and struc­tures to sup­port anti-graft ini­tia­tives.


The per­sis­tent civil war that marred the county’s tran­si­tion has come to an end, and the Ninja rebel group fi­nally dis­armed in 2008. The busi­ness and po­lit­i­cal elite is small and po­lit­i­cal pa­tron­age is a com­mon prob­lem. Bu­reau­cracy is in­ter­minable and cor­rup­tion rife.


The coun­try’s neg­a­tive as­pects are mag­ni­fied with cor­rup­tion in­di­ca­tors wors­en­ing and Pres­i­dent Mu­sev­eni’s in­creas­ingly au­to­cratic man­ner un­der­lin­ing the weak­ness of govern­ment in­sti­tu­tions. 2013 is likely to be de­ci­sive for the oil sec­tor, where progress has stalled and po­lit­i­cal risks are rapidly in­creas­ing as the sec­tor be­comes a stag­ing ground for fac­tional dis­putes.

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