Not the end of the world
There are said to be three kinds of people in this world: those who make things happen, those who watch things happen, and those who wonder what the hell happened. Sadly, in this trying time of the Coronavirus pandemic, it feels as if there are not nearly enough people who fall in the first category.
Without wanting to diminish people’s suffering and socio-economic upheaval over the past four or so months, if I once more hear someone bleat that “the world has changed!”, I am going to go out there and sneeze on them. I took a drive over Helshoogte the other day and – blow me down! – it looked the same as it did a year ago (a lot greener, actually) and even the year before. What you mean to say is that “the world as I am experiencing it, has changed”. Big difference.
Another Covid-19 phrase that is beginning to get up my nose is “the new normal”. Let us change that to “the new normal … for now” because mankind has shown singular inability to learn from its past and I fail to see why the current situation should prove different. You have only to see how people partied like there was no tomorrow when boozing and other social distancing restrictions (here and just about everywhere else in the world) were lifted to know what I mean.
Naturally, as a travel correspondent, I feel particularly for the tourism and hospitality sector where – according to Stellenbosch University’s Bureau for Economic Research (BER) – two-thirds of all jobs could be lost by this time next year. The study (“COVID-19: The impact on the South African tourism industry”) was based on tourism expenditure figures contained in Stats SA’S Tourism Satellite Account for 2018.
It stated: “Our best-case scenario is estimated to result in 58.2% fewer domestic trips and 68.4% fewer inbound visitors in 2020. This translates into a loss of R171.4 billion in spending by domestic and inbound tourists”. The tourism and hospitality sector is an amalgam of industries including accommodation, restaurants, travel agencies, passenger transportation services, sporting, and other recreational services.
Prevailing thinking in the industry is that ultra-wealthy foreigners – those unfortunates who have had their fortunes whittled down to their last US$100 million or so – will return to South Africa relatively soon after world travel resumes. You have not lived till you have nearly died, goes the saying, and these people have the same desire as you and I to experience the best life has to offer before they pop their clogs. Moreover, they have the wealth to tick off bucket list desires such as luxury wildlife safaris (though maybe not boat cruises).
As for the other visitors from abroad, do not hold your breath because they are suffering the same fears and financial deprivations as the rest of us. I have spoken to a lot of people in the sector and there is consensus that the pace of recovery (and, indeed, the ability to recover) will be based on perceptions of value-for-money.
For every leisure activity there will be an opportunity cost: for most of us who have had our incomes trimmed by the pandemic, going out for a meal means we will have to forfeit on some other item… perhaps even something fundamental. But for those who do venture forth when regulations permit?
The businesses most at risk in the months ahead are those that previously snubbed locals by hiking their prices so much as to be inaccessible to anyone other than those with wallets filled with dollars, pounds sterling, or Euros. We might not heed lessons of history but, goodness, we do not forget insults.