Blacks and coloureds moving further away from employment
THE TRAJECTORY of South Africa’s socio-economic development is anchored on social, political and economic disenfranchisement. Key to these pillars is first disenfranchisement from education and the development of stable productive forces, and second disenfranchisement through the introduction of the migratory labour system.
The subject of my input is education and in this regard I frame the argument on the phenomenon called a demographic dividend. A demographic dividend is a benefit that arises out of rapid population growth based on the survival of children through improved health systems and subsequently an increased number of years of working life.
However this outcome is not automatic. It is predicated upon focused development of the productive forces. Through education and only education can human beings be transformed into productive forces.
Twenty-two years into democracy this particular relic of apartheid’s grand design has exhibited an incredible agility and affinity to produce and reproduce negative consequences for blacks and coloureds, both in performance in education as well as in employment outcomes.
Apartheid’s lasting legacy has eluded democratic policy prescripts, and administrative instruments and instructions. It has successfully paralysed the potential for economic development.
By this I mean the explicit inability of blacks and coloureds to derive a demographic dividend. Unlike their Indian and white counterparts, they are unable to participate in economic life as a result of their underdeveloped productive forces.
While Indians were subjected to similar discriminatory practices, they were able to build productive forces and have succeeded in harvesting the demographic dividend.
Some argue that all cannot be blamed on apartheid. Absurd as the argument is, it makes sense from a perspective that apartheid was an economic instrument executed through political power. Now that political power has changed and South Africa is democratic, such political power, it is argued, should be applied for redress.
There is no doubt that since the dawn of democracy South Africa has become better. Evidence shows that poverty has been reduced through social programmes including education. However, after 22 years, it is clear that without investing in the development of productive forces beyond the ability to read and write and especially given meagre arithmetic, the base platform that has been achieved thus far will be reversed if nothing drastic is done about the productive forces.
For instance the multidimensional measurement of poverty has shown conclusively that unemployment is the single biggest driver of poverty, accounting for 52% of the poverty drivers, together with years of schooling they contribute 63% of the key poverty drivers. What is most worrisome is that unemployment increased its contribution by seven percentage points from 33% to 40% between 2001 and 2011, a 10-year period.
However within five years, from 2011 to 2016, the contribution of unemployment to poverty had increased by 12 percentage points from 40% to 52%. This contribution is accelerating and is bound to get to a tipping point if not arrested.
The inputs to alleviate poverty through transfer of assets, social grants, electricity, water and sanitation while important are yielding diminishing returns to alleviating poverty, and are not tempering or improving blacks and coloureds’ chances to be employed and enjoy a demographic dividend.
Evidence shows that with university graduate education, blacks and coloureds escape the spectre of unemployment. Coloured university graduates experience the lowest unemployment rate of 0.95% – less than that of whites at 2.1%.
What is worrisome in a trade-skills thirsty country like South Africa, is this: Why is it that the Technical and Vocational Education and Training graduates fare so poorly in terms of employment? Their levels of unemployment are so high (at 29% compared to 12% for graduates) that the qualifications TVET colleges produce may attract scrutiny.
Coming to the performance of students at university by racial composition, the numbers reflect a worrisome trend which is showing a wasteful system when it comes to blacks and coloureds and a rewarding system for whites and Indians.
Progression ratios or success rates for each successive cohort entering uni- versity over the last 40 years show that blacks and coloureds perform poorly.
Statistics conclusively illustrate that blacks will not have a demographic dividend while whites are secured in enjoying the benefits of a long period of consolidation of education as the basis for determining labour market outcomes. The proportion of university graduates who are white for each age cohort is in the region of 40% while that of blacks is just under 5%.
In the light of funding higher education, the evidence sheds light on the racebased tragedy of education performance and labour market challenges confronting South Africa.
Dr Pali Lehohla is statistician-general and the head of Statistics South Africa