Cold new facts about the Arctic
EVEN if the world were to cut emissions in line with the Paris Agreement, the Arctic will only get hotter, “devastating the region and unleashing sea-level rises worldwide”.
New research by UN
Environment released this week, Global Linkages – A Graphic Look at the Changing Arctic – showed how winter temperatures in the Arctic would climb 3-5°C by 2050 compared with 1986-2005 levels and 5-9°C by 2080.
“What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic,” remarks Joyce Msuya, the acting executive director of UN Environment.
“We have the science; now more urgent climate action is needed to steer away from tipping points that could be even worse for our planet than we first thought.”
Meanwhile, rapidly thawing permafrost could wake what the report refers to as a “sleeping giant” that could accelerate climate change further and derail efforts to meet the Paris Agreement’s long-term goal of limiting the rise in global temperature to 2°C.
Other environmental pressures on the Arctic include ocean acidification and plastic pollution.
“Even if global emissions were to halt overnight, winter temperatures in the Arctic would still increase
4 to 5°C by 2100 compared with the late 20th century. This increase is locked into the climate system by greenhouse gases already emitted and ocean heat storage,” says the
UN.
From 1979 to the present, the amount of Arctic sea ice is estimated to have plunged by 40%. “Climate models predict that, at the current rate of carbon dioxide emissions, Arctic summers will be ice-free by the 2030s. The melting of the Greenland ice cap and Arctic glaciers contribute to one-third of sea-level rise worldwide.”
Even if the Paris Agreement is met, Arctic permafrost is expected to shrink 45% compared with today.
“Globally, these frozen soils hold billions of metric tons of carbon. Increased thawing is expected to contribute significantly to carbon dioxide and methane emissions.
“The resulting warming will in turn lead to more thawing – an effect known as ‘positive feedback’. This accelerated climate change could even throw the Paris Agreement’s
2°C goal off track.”
Ocean acidification, too, is having an impact on Arctic marine species. “Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the world’s ocean has become 30% more acidic. The more acidic the water, the more energy Arctic corals, molluscs, sea urchins and plankton must use to build their shells and skeletons.
“The Arctic’s geographical characteristics and cold climate mean the region’s ocean, sea floor and coastline are a sink for contaminants from around the globe. Only
1000 out of the 150000 chemical substances in use worldwide are regularly monitored.”
The report argues that a global approval system for new chemicals is needed, while alternative controls are also seen as necessary for chemicals that fall outside of existing treaties.
Sheree Bega