DEATHS WHICH COULD HAVE BEEN AVOIDED

AN ESTIMATED 3 100 premature deaths could be avoided in the Gauteng region by requiring full compliance with the Minimum Emission Standards (MES).

But if Eskom’s application for noncompliance with the MES are fully granted, this will lead to the following avoidable health impacts in Gauteng:

◆ 860 premature deaths due to travels.”

His updated analysis of a year of Tropomi NO2 satellite data and other scientific datasets confirms that the coal fired power plant and industrial cluster in Mpumalanga is the world’s worst hotspot for power plant NO2 and SO2 emissions.

It ranks fourth for NO2, after Tehran and Dubai – with their high oil consumption in power plants and Seoul – with a large concentration of transport and industrial emissions – and third for SO2 emissions in the world, after India and China.

“It’s the only place in the world that ranks among the top five for both of these dangerous pollutants,” says Myllyvirta.

“The finding is corroborated by analyses by Nasa, the Netherlands meteorological institute KNMI and Eskom’s own published emissions data.”

In South Africa, weak emissions standards means that Eskom’s coalfired power plants are allowed to emit more than 20 times as much SO2 and 15 times as much NOX as their Chinese and European counterparts.

“China ranks comparably low in the Global Air Pollution Map because from 2012 – 2017, the country achieved dramatic reductions in power plant and industrial emissions and equally dramatic improvements in air quality,” he points out.

The findings show that Eskom’s almost complete reliance on coal leads to about 2 100 premature deaths every increased risk of lower respiratory infections, including in young children

◆ 300 premature deaths due to increased risk of stroke

◆ 110 premature deaths due to increased risk of death from diabetes

◆ 500 premature deaths due to increased risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

◆ 600 premature deaths due to year, and that Eskom’s application to postpone complying with the Minimum Emission Standards (MES) will cause an additional 16 000 premature deaths over the remaining life of Eskom’s power plants.

Greenpeace published its first global NO2 air pollution hotspot map in October, which ranked Mpumalanga is the world’s worst NO2 pollution hot spot for a three-month period.

However, the new analysis is based on 12 months of data and Mpumalanga remains the highest-emitting coal power plant hot spot in the world, on par with the Sonbhadra coal mining and power plant cluster in India, he points out.

Last October, the Department of Environmental Affairs, the CSIR and other scientists questioned Greenpeace Africa’s claims that eight million people in Joburg and Pretoria are exposed regularly to extreme and dangerous levels of NO2 in South Africa.

The satellite observation data did increased risk of ischaemic heart disease

◆ 500 premature deaths due to increased risk of lung cancer associated with chronic PM.25 (particulate matter) exposure

◆ 190 premature deaths due to increased risk of death associated with acute NO2 exposure.

| Source: Greenpeace not represent ground level data to show people were breathing the pollutants in, cautioned Professor Rebecca Garland of the CSIR, and did not factor in seasonal variations.

The Department of Environmental Affairs stated its five ambient air quality monitoring stations measured NOX concentrations far below the ambient air quality standard.

Myllyvirta says the Greenpeace findings are well in line with earlier, publicly available data.

“Besides using the Nasa SO2 emission data, we compared our NO2 estimates to two other sources: the Dutch Meteorological agency’s monthly (oxides of nitrogen) NOX emissions based on NASA satellite data and official emission statistics from China and Eskom.”

Melita Steele, senior climate and energy campaign manager at Greenpeace Africa, says it welcomes any criticism “that looks at what we have and engages with it rather than just dismissing it.

“We are in the midst of an air pollution crisis within an electricity crisis in South Africa, and can no longer afford to be in denial.”

Eskom is applying for wide ranging postponements and suspensions from the MES that will allow it to operate its entire existing fleet without even rudimentary controls for SO2, NOX and mercury.

“As Eskom’s coal-fired power plants are among the largest sources of air pollutant emissions in SA and globally,