WINE STOCKS COULD DIMINISH

THE prospect of hotter summers, warmer winters, drought and violent weather events have caused experts to warn of coming wine shortages and price increases, changing varietal character and, in some dire predictions, the extinction of some wines altogether.

Maybe there’s a fix, says a research paper in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The scientists’ computer models show that if we do nothing, global warming of 2°C would wipe out 56% of current winegrowing land; increase that to 4°C and an estimated 85% of grapes won’t be viable.

This team of researchers investigated whether using more heat-tolerant grapes would allow vineyards to adapt. They found that by reshuffling where certain grape varieties are grown, potential losses at 2°C of warming could be halved, and cut by a third if warming reached 4°C.

The researchers focused on 11 varieties of wine grapes – including cabernet sauvignon, chardonnay, merlot, pinot noir, riesling, sauvignon blanc and syrah, as well as lesser-known varieties such as chasselas, grenache, monastrell (also known as mourvedre) and ugni blanc.

Together, these account for a third of the total area planted to wine grapes and represent important parts of the wine industry in France, Australia, New Zealand and Chile.

In the study’s modelling, the biggest losses are in Spain, Italy and parts of California that are already quite warm. But there are winners in warming scenarios: In Germany, northern Europe and the Pacific North-west of the US, where in some years they struggle to get enough sun hours to facilitate budding, fruit set and ripening, a warming trend might produce dramatically better wines.

Many wine industry experts have pointed to increased ripeness in grapes and higher alcohol levels as indications of climate change. | The Washington Post