It’s not a three-legged race anymore
‘The prospect of coalitions in certain municipalities is a reality that cannot be ignored’
IT IS SHAPING up to be the election of the little guy, those contesting smaller parties that, come Monday, might change the political landscape of Johannesburg and South Africa for the foreseeable future.
Never before have so many political parties participated in a South African election.
On election day Monday, South Africans will be able to choose from 300 different political parties. What it means, say the experts, is that these smaller parties could upset the Big Three – the ANC, the DA and the EFF – by possibly ganging together in some municipalities and taking control, or shaping politics, through coalitions.
The smaller parties could eat away at or deny seats for the bigger parties.
In an article he wrote for The Conversation, Professor Bheki Mngomezulu, of the Department of Political Science at the University of the Western Cape, pointed out that many of these small parties have been formed by politicians who were previously associated with one of the three bigger parties. And some of them have large followings. In Johannesburg, Actionsa is led by the city’s former mayor, Herman Mashaba, who some believe may become a problem for his former party, the DA.
Mngomezulu said the rise in political parties putting forward candidates, and the explosion in the number of independents, means it’s no longer simply a race among the three big parties.
“It’s important to remember that this is a municipal poll, not national and provincial elections. Local elections provide a platform for a wider range of political parties. Secondly, the fact that the number of new political parties has increased significantly could mean that the plans of the three main parties are derailed. In the main, the new parties are formed by politicians who were once associated with the three main parties. Some even enjoy a good following.
“In all probability, their supporters and their sympathisers might vote for them, drawing away votes from the big players.”
Thirdly, said Mngomezulu, the increased number of independent candidates poses a challenge to the three main political parties. Even if none of them attracts a larger following, they might take enough from the three main political parties to deny them control of municipalities. “Depending on the popularity of the ANC, DA and EFF in a given municipality, independent candidates might win seats or simply take enough votes to deny any of the three main parties an outright majority.
“Fourthly, with so many political parties and so many independent candidates, the prospect of coalitions in certain municipalities is a reality that cannot be ignored. While it is true that the ANC, DA and EFF enjoy more support compared to the other parties, there is a possibility that smaller parties could gang up against the big three to run some municipalities.
“Fifthly, not all provinces are the same. In Kwazulu-natal, for example, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) cannot be ignored. In fact, it poses a bigger threat to the ANC than the DA and the EFF combined.”
Amanda Gouws, a political science professor at Stellenbosch University, said she was not sure that the ANC will be able to keep hold of Johannesburg following the elections.
“I think Herman Mashaba’s Actionsa will draw some votes and that there will be a coalition government because
I don't see any party in Johannesburg getting 50% plus one of the votes.”
Gouws, who specialises in local government elections, voting behaviour, election campaigns and campaign platforms, also thinks there will be many other coalition governments across the country.
“There are many smaller and independent parties contesting the elections and this will also be very dependent on voter turnout,” she told the Saturday Star.
There are concerns that some of the electorate, fed up with poor service delivery, might simply stay away on
Monday.
Gouws explained that if the ANC gets less than 50% of the vote, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s future could be on shaky ground.
“This will be of particular concern as the ANC heads into its elective conference next year.”
Professor Lawrence Hamilton at the Department of Political Studies, School of Social Sciences at Wits, said that the discontent over the poor performance of SOES such as Eskom could play a role.
“The ANC will receive some punishment. I also think fewer people will vote. Political apathy is quite common in South African politics. Also, we are not yet a mature democracy and the electoral behaviour often changes,” he said.
Hamilton said he still believes that many Gautengers will still vote for the ANC, although the electoral landscape is changing.
“Historically, voting patterns in Gauteng are quite muddled. I do believe that many former DA voters will vote for Herman Mashaba. I actually think that Actionsa may just come out as kingmaker insofar as coalitions go,” he said.
Hamilton believes the party to look out for is the EFF.
“Actionsa is a very young party and if we look at history, I don’t think they will unseat the EFF or the ANC,” he said.
Political analyst Professor Sipho Seepe said while he was unsure of how voting would pan out in Johannesburg, he said the ANC would most likely get the majority of the vote.
“Joburg is a bit tricky,” Seepe admitted to the Saturday Star.
“But there is no doubt that the ANC will still get the majority of the vote. Despite its internal challenges and demonstrable failure to deliver, the party still retains a competitive advantage over all other parties.”
He explained that the party was still deeply rooted among many people, because of its liberation history.
“For some, it is a case of better the devil you know than the one you don’t,” he said, although the ANC might have to hold on to Johannesburg with the help of a coalition.
But it will only be after the votes are counted that the citizens of Johannesburg will find out whose hand will have control of their city and if they will deliver on those election promises. It will also perhaps provide a glimpse of South Africa’s political future of a patchwork of coalitions and big parties forced to redefine themselves.
Meanwhile, power utility Eskom last night lifted its scheduled power cuts after some of its power stations that had broken down – leading to Stage 4 blackouts – were returned to service.
Eskom chief executive Andre de Ruyter apologised for the power cuts that were experienced this week.
“I understand that this has caused significant inconvenience to the public and, in particular, to our matriculants, who are in the process of writing exams.
“It is very regrettable this load shedding was unavoidable,” De Ruyter said.
He, however, said the good news was that they have seen a positive recovery in their system.
Eskom chief operations officer Jan Oberholzer said they were pleased to halt the power cuts.
“The main reason for rescinding the load shedding is that some of the units that broke down from Sunday last week were mostly returned successfully to service.”
Oberholzer said the outlook for next week was very positive and that there would be no implementation of more power cuts.
“That is the positive outlook; however, I have to unfortunately again reiterate that we have a constrained system. Some of the units and some of the power stations still remain extremely unpredictable and unreliable, so we trust that we will not have any unforeseen breakdowns, but we believe there may be the possibility of some breakdowns.
“But we have surplus emergency reserves that are being replenished. We will have an election that is free of load shedding, including during the days after the elections – during the counting of votes,” he added. | Additional reporting by Mayibongwe Maqhina