MIND THE GAPS

AS THE global population swells from 7 billion in 2010 to a projected 9.8 billion in 2050, and incomes grow across the developing world, overall food demand is on course to increase by more than 50% and demand for animal-based foods by nearly 70%, says the World Resources Institute.

“Yet today, hundreds of millions of people remain hungry, agriculture already uses almost half of the world’s vegetated land and agriculture and related land-use change generate one quarter of annual greenhouse gas emissions.”

This entails closing three “great gaps” by 2050 – the food gap, the land gap and the greenhouse gas mitigation gap.

The food gap refers to the difference between the amount of food produced in 2010 and the amount necessary to meet likely demand in 2050.

“We estimate this gap to be 7.400 trillion calories, or 56% more crop calories than were produced in 2010”.

The land gap refers to the difference between global agricultural land area in 2010 and the area required in 2050 even if crop and pasture yield continue to grow at past rates. “We estimate this gap to be an area nearly twice the size of India.”

The greenhouse gas mitigation gap is the difference between the annual greenhouse gas emissions likely from agriculture and land use change in 2050.

“Holding warming below a 1.5ºc would require meeting the 4 gigaton target plus reforesting hundreds of millions of hectares of liberated agricultural land.”