We need to dig deeper
On scoring first
This has absolutely nothing to do with the ongoing Africa Cup of Nations in Cameroon but just a general feeling to understanding the difference it makes to score first in a football match. There are critical phases in the game, which are the beginning of the match, the period before the end of the first half, the beginning of the second half as well as the period just before the final whistle.
Away teams tend to concede in the critical phases of the game and it very rare for a team to find an equalizer within the same half. They always try to push harder towards the end. That’s why it is even more valuable to score the first goal when playing at home because it obviously increases your chances of winning. The importance of scoring first also varies because it is important to note the team that scores and the one that concedes. The time factor is also of critical importance because you’re talking about a goal for and a goal against. What does it do to the team that has scored and what does it do to the team that has conceded? The team that scores first causes damage and panic to the opposition, especially if it is early, because it gives them a wake-up call to say, ‘We can’t afford to concede another goal or two,’ and that sends them into a panic mode because they are scared of making mistakes. This doesn’t just affect the tactical approach but inflicts fear.
Having said that, sometimes teams win through an early goal and the opposition struggles to cancel it until the final whistle. If you look at the importance of scoring the first goal, you’ll realise that this is how the championship has been won in most cases. Getting that first goal means a lot and some teams can defend it with everything they have until the final whistle goes. I have seen teams that score early and defend for 90 minutes without even worrying about getting a second goal. This also throws a curve ball to say what does it do to your team to concede the first goal, whether it is in the first or second half? It does change the complexion of the game completely as it brings a lot of concern and panic because the team that has conceded is now worried about possibly not finding the equalizer or, even worse, conceding again. That creates anxiety and it is very important to understand the importance of the first goal in a match.
If you look at the teams in the Top Eight bracket, they can still
earn points even after conceding the first goal. They either fight for a draw or even go on to win the game. However, the teams in the bottom half always struggle to respond and that means they struggle to equalize or even win the game after going a goal down. That’s what the study I’m going through is saying and I believe that to be the case. This I why it is important to do your homework and analysis so that you know what to expect from the opposition. That way you know how they react to conceding or scoring first. Also bear in mind that teams play home and away, so that also comes into the equation. Your big teams can go play away from home, concede and still behave as though they are playing at home. They can still force a draw if they can’t win, whereas when they play at home and concede first, they will make sure to equalize as soon as possible, in the same half that they conceded in, so that they can fight for a winning goal. If they play against a bottom-of-the-log team, most of the cases they find it difficult to win if they concede first. This is what the study says and it is a very interesting to note what scoring first does to the game when you do a debrief with your team. You also need to know what changes you need to make in your approach should you score first or concede in order to stand a chance to win or draw your match. Sometimes you need to shut the backdoor, play on transition or just play with one striker and everyone else behind the ball, depending on the circumstances and what the game demands from you.
It is vitally important for your team to know these things so that they can adjust accordingly when the need arises, instead of waiting for instructions to come from the bench. This is very interesting and when I was reading about this, it really opened my eyes. The importance of understanding what happens when you score or concede first in a match is critical. You need to be able to control your emotions whether you’ve scored or conceded first. Even when things don’t work according to plan, your team still needs to stick to the game plan. That’s where individual brilliance sometimes come into play where one player turns things around back into the team’s favour. It takes a lot of discipline to stick to your game plan even after conceding, without losing confidence or concentration.
Now with the new normal, due to COVID-19, where we don’t have the supporters at the stadium, it is even trickier because if you concede first, you need the 12th man to rally behind you. They push the team to get an equalizer or even a winner. Now, without them, you have to push yourselves and that’s not easy at all. Let’s hope we will start seeing the supporters back at the stadium sooner than later because football is never the same without our passionate supporters.
According to the statistics, when the home team scores first, they go on to win 71% of the games. We can go and show the analysis and research within the PSL in the last five seasons to see what impact scoring the first goal, home or away, has had in the game. Having said that, at the end of the day, this is something very interesting to look into and I know it is not something that a lot of people would probably think about often. For the sake of expanding your football knowledge, I felt it was important to share this information with you. If there are any topics you’d like for me to discuss, please feel free to contact me via Soccer Laduma and I will gladly indulge you. I hope and trust that you will all find this information useful because I believe it is time for us to dig deeper and empower ourselves.
Happy birthday, Soccer Laduma!
Let me with Soccer Laduma a happy 25th birthday. Through this publication, we have all become family as we have a date every Wednesday and I wish this publication many more years to come.