Where Chiefs a falling behind Do Re wns

Without doubt, the biggest disparity between these sides is in attack. Mamelodi Sundowns have scored 49 and 56 goals in the last two seasons as they netted more than any other team in the division. The biggest reason for this is the sheer quality and depth they possess. Peter Shalulile scored an incredible 23 league goals from open play (in other words, he didn’t rely on any penalties), but the next top scorer for Downs was Pavol Safranko with five strikes and Themba Zwane, also with five (three open play, two penalties). Kaizer Chiefs simply don’t have anyone on the same planet as the Namibian striker in terms of durability, consistency and sheer output.

Amakhosi only scored 34 goals in their 30 matches last season, an average of 1,10 goals per game. There are a number of statistical areas where they lag behind Masandawana, but few are as damning as the fact that Chiefs fired blanks in 10 of their matches. To fail to score in that many games is hugely concerning. Their other 20 matches brought 1,70 goals per game, but simply getting the number of goalless outings closer to Downs’ five blanks would potentially lead to more points on the board.

Chiefs’ top scorers were Khama Billiat with eight goals and Keagan Dolly with seven to his name, two of those from the penalty spot. The departed Bernard Parker contributed four goals and then you have a few playtwo ers contributing goals each. The big hope is that by activating Ashley Du Preez’s R10 million release clause to acquire him from Stellenbosch FC, the scorimprove ing numbers will as the speedy player got nine goals last season. Crucially, six of those were the opening strike in the match, which is so key in modern football as there are actually very few come-from-behind victories.

If we look at the underlying data, the Soweto giants don’t compare well to the Brazilians in almost every category. They dropped from 11,4 shots per match in the 2020/21 campaign to just 10,7 last time out, whereas Sundowns fired off 12,6 shots per match. The co-coached side hit the target with 39% of those attempts and put 14,8% in the back of the net. Chiefs’ shooting accuracy is 3% lower at 36% and they score just 10,6% of those efforts. In those 10 matches where the Glamour Boys failed to score, they lost six times and took just four points. Amakhosi failed to register both home and away against low-finishing TS Galaxy and also couldn’t breach high-flying Stelfixture. lenbosch in either Teams like Marumo Gallants and a very young and leaky (at time time) SuperSport United backline also kept them at bay.

The one hope for the Chiefs faithful to hold onto is the Expected

Goals numbers. These measure how many times a team should score based on the quality of their chances, using

the location and type

Last season, Kaizer Chiefs finished 18 points behind eventual chamMamelodi pions Sundowns, a slight improvement from the 31-point gap a year earlier. It has now reached seven years since the Soweto giants last won the league title and there is no end in sight to that lengthy drought. A new coach with fresh ideas in Arthur Zwane has been handed the reins, whilst the club’s newly formed recruitment structure has added seven new players to bridge the gap. Using data, Soccer Laduma delves into the numbers to see which areas Amakhosi apbe pear to struggling to match up to the champions. “10111” has a big job on his hands to close the deficit. In this comparative feawe ture, take a look at how Chiefs measured up to the Chloorkop-based outfit in the 2021/22 campaign across goalscoring, defending, goalkeeping, aerial ability, crossing, dribbling and distribution. of assist that came before it. Their xG numbers totalled 40,97 over the season, but they only put the ball in the back of the net 34 times. Their underperformance was therefore 6,97 goals – in short, Chiefs created enough openings to score more than 40 goals but didn’t have finisher. If we contrast that to Downs, who produced 48,93 Expected Goals, we see the Brazilians overperformed by 7,07 goals. What that means is that Sundowns had players who could finish more difficu lt chances on a regular basis – they had the league’s best striker and it showed in these numbers. Shalulile scored 23 goals from 83 shots, a conversion rate of 27%, nearly double that of his teammates. His 23 strikes came from 18 Exmeaning pected Goals, he is the number one reason why Sundowns overperformed going forward. Chiefs are going to need slump from the Namibian in the coming season in order to get closer to the Brazilians’ goalscoranswer? ing total.

Can Du Preez be the The 25-year-old has come in and could play as a central striker considering Samir Nurkovic, Leonardo Castro and Parker have been shown the exit door. The Stellenbosch-born speedster needed 42 shots for his nine goals, a shot-to-goals ratio of 4,66 (Shalulile sat at 3,60). His nine goals came from

8,0 Expected Goals, but anyone who has seen Du Preez play over the last two seasons knows that improving his finishing is the biggest aspect of his game to work on. Realistically, he

could get around 10-15 PSL goals in his first season, at best, if he starts almost every match.

Sundowns’ last two titles have been built on a rock-solid defensive unit. In

the 2020/21 season, they conceded just 14 goals and kept 19 clean sheets. In

the last campaign, they let in 20 goals

perb return. The first 10 matches of last season saw zero goals conceded as Grant Kekana slotted into the centre-back role like a hand in glove. By mid-November, Downs had 26 points from a possible 30 and already looked out of sight for any title challengers.

Amakhosi saw a big defensive improvement last season from the one before. Under Gavin Hunt, the side had leaked 37 goals and kept just seven clean sheets in the league. The arrival of Stuart Baxter (with Zwane in charge for the final seven matches) saw the side’s goals conceded record improve to 26 with 11 clean sheets. The club had gone out to recruit the PSL Defender of the Season in Njabulo Ngcobo as well as Sifiso Hlanti and Austin Dube. None of them played enough minutes at the back – for various reasons – to be considered the reason for the upturn defensively. Whilst there were some howlers early on from ageing Erick Mathoho and Daniel Cardoso and plenty of late-season individual errors too (think Njabulo Ngcobo v Golden Arrows), it was still a step in the right direction.

Downs only allowed opponents

Chiefs (0,98 Expected Goals to 1,06 xG) and a little more organisation, better coaching, a more consistent, stable unit and the arrival of Zitha Kwinika should also see Amakhosi concede a few less goals in the 2022/23 campaign. Sundowns allowed 20 goals in their final 20 matches, whilst Chiefs only conceded 14 during that same period. The return of Kwinika to the club, especially if he is used as a central defender, should bring a calmness that the defence has lacked. At Stellies, he captained the side at times and played centrally in a back three and back four. He won 75% of his tackles and 60% of his aerial duels and will bring speed and reading of the game alongside the likes of Siyabonga Ngezana, Njabulo Ngcobo, Erick Mathoho and Austin Dube. have to highlight is Rushine De Reuck. The Bafana Bafana man is an absolute rock in defence for Sundowns. He won 78% of his defensive challenges last term and 73% of his aerial duels all over the pitch. In terms of tackles, he won a superb 86% of his 28 tackles across the campaign. With his presence, few PSL strikers can intimidate the Tshwane giants or get much joy from ‘helicopter football’. Ngezana is the Chiefs equivalent. For years, he has ranked amongst the league’s best players in challenges. His numbers rank just below De Reuck’s in each department, but his form after Zwane took over earned him a Bafana Bafana call-up.

With the aforementioned arrival of Kwinika, there is potential for that to be a very well-balanced duo. The former Stellies man is greater on the ground and balances out Ngezana’s dominance of the skies. It should be mentioned that Cardoso had very strong numbers in these categories too and was important at defending his own box, even as his mobility began

to decline into his 30s.

Itumeleng Khune’s injury problems began. Downs have been able to lean on the vastly experienced Denis Onyango and a support team of very able deputies whenever he is absent. As we saw with the defensive numbers, the Brazilians and Chiefs allow a pretty similar number of chances to the opponents, but Amakhosi concede more goals.

Once again, the Ugandan was incredible last season, keeping 11 clean sheets in 16 appearances for the team coached by Manqoba Mngqithi and Rhulani Mokwena. He saved a mightily impressive 86% of the 36 shots he faced and only conceded a goal every 256 minutes on the pitch. When he missed matches due to injury or rest, Kennedy Mweene did a solid job in his place and Reyaad Pieterse also

had something of a rebirth with some steady displays. This department has been boosted by Ronwen Williams’ arrival, so the depth and competition at

Downs is incredible. The latter won’t have an easy task displacing Onyango and may need to rotate with the 37-year-old for at least one season.

For Chiefs, Khune did not appear even once in the PSL last season but has survived a bit of a clear-out, with Daniel Akpeyi instead finding himself released by the Naturena-based club. The data shows that the Nigerian was the best-performing custodian for the Soweto giants last term and that has arguably been the case for the previous two seasons too (with six of Chiefs’ seven clean sheets in the 2020/21 season coming in Akpeyi’s

14 starts). Zwane looks set to choose between two younger options in Brandon Petersen and Bruce Bvuma, both players who have stagnated in recent years after showing immense early potential. The best hope for Amakhosi of outperforming Sundowns between the sticks is if the latter chop and change too much to keep both Williams and Onyango happy and it affects the continuity of the defence.

Over the last couple of seasons, Chiefs have not had any major focus on their possession numbers. Ernst Middendorp maximised the talents of his target men with a direct game and Hunt has never cared for keepball. Sundowns, meanwhile, have dedomination manded and penetration, not just control of matches, by using possession. With Zwane in charge, we are expected to see a return to the so-called “Kaizer Chiefs way”, which includes ball mastery and manipulation by the attacking players and imposing your game onto the opponents.

If we look at the basic possession and distribution numbers, we can see how the Brazilians set the benchmark of imposing their playing style for as close to 90 minutes as possible in every match they play. The Glamour Boys barely managed more than half of the ball share in their matches – often looking more effective by ceding possession under Baxter – with a measly 51% average compared to a mammoth 62% for Downs. All of that starts from the greater passing accuracy and patience shown by the Chloorkop-based side. This is borne out in how many fewer aerial duels they contest per match, by keeping the ball onto the deck. As the great British coach Brian Clough famously said, “If God had wanted us to play football in the clouds, he’d have put grass up there.”

Sundowns have significantly fewer counter-attacks per match than Amakhosi, who relied on transitions under Baxter. In terms of final third entries and penalty box entries – both very basic measures of turning possession into penetration – there is no comparison between these sides. None of these stats are a surprise, but it shows the amount of work Zwane will

have in overhauling the game model. A year from now, we will be able to compare and see the difference – that is something you can count on! With the signings of central midfielders like Yusuf Maart, Siyethemba Sithebe and Lehlogonolo Matlou, there is much more chance of Amakhosi controlling matches in the engine room.

Crossing and dribbling

Last term, we saw Amakhosi cross the ball significantly less often under Baxter and Zwane than under Hunt. The latter’s side put in 16,23 deliveries per match, whilst this number dropped

to 11,77 last time out in a counter-attacking style. Downs actually increased how often they deliver the ball from wide, perhaps down to the arrival of Safranko to attack crosses and wingers like Neo Maema and Bradley Ralani being added to the roster.

In terms of dribbling, Sundowns were far ahead of Chiefs. With 22,1 one-v-one actions per game for Masandawana to just 16,9 for the Glamour Boys, it’s an area that needs improvement. Zwane will want to see his side switch play and get opportunities to beat their man. The arrival of Dillon Solomons and Kamohelo Mahlatsi should give greater dribbling ability both out wide and in more central areas too. We saw the Brazilians go into the market last off-season to find guys who tended to dribble regularly such as Thabiso Kutumela, Maema, Ralani and even Divine Lunga.

Billiat was back to his dribbling best last season, especially when returning to the left wing, after a few seasons where he seemed to take on his man significantly less often. He hit the 90 dribbles mark over the season, beating his man 76% of the time. Dolly and Njabulo Blom (when at right back) also had decent numbers, but to hit the numbers that Downs hit, more will be needed. Solomons attempted 55 dribbles and 66 crosses for Swallows FC

from either a winger or right back role. Mahlatsi, often from a “free eight” position centrally, made 59 dribbles despite only appearing in 16 matches for the Dube Birds. Matlou’s 21 successful dribbles from 31 attempts was also a strong return from a central

midfielder who barely played in the second half of the season. All of that adds up to seeing a Chiefs side that is more creative and direct on the ball thanks to recruiting some specialist one-versus-one merchants and not just in wide positions.