It’s Mdu or die for Chiefs
Last weekend, Kaizer Chiefs ended a fivematch winless run by beating SuperSport United 2-1. It might have been a good time to play Gavin Hunt’s limping side considering Matsatsantsa were on a run of one win in 14 matches and no clean sheets in 27 fixtures. The winner was scored by Mduduzi Shabalala, a first goal of the season for the 20-year-old. Without doubt, the talented playmaker needs to hit the back of the net more often. After being sidelined by Molefi Ntseki with just one start in 13 matches to begin this season, the risk of stagnating and losing motivation was possible for Shabalala. In this feature, Soccer Laduma takes a look at his best position, how he compares to his competition for the No. 10 role and whether coach Cavin Johnson will give him a run of games in that position.
More goals and shots are needed
The goal at Peter Mokaba Stadium against SuperSport United this past weekend was a first strike for Kaizer Chiefs midfielder Mduduzi Shabalala since February 2023 when he netted against Golden Arrows. After tucking home a finish from close range on his debut back in August 2023, it’s 2,000 minutes played and just two goals scored. For any regular starter in attacking areas at a club like Chiefs, that is nowhere near good enough. In fact, throughout last season, he only took 22 shots in the DStv Premiership with six hitting the target. Not only was he not scoring with regularity, he looked reluctant to even try his luck. There’s a school of thought that players from the townships have become accustomed to walking the ball ‘into the net’, as the saying goes, because often the goalposts won’t have any physical net to stop any powerful shots. Watching Shabalala seems to add some weight to that theory. In the 13 outings after his goal on debut, he only took 23 shots up until April 2024. If we look at this season’s data, he has “only” attempted 20 shots in 676 minutes of action and only six of those (30%) have hit the target. He will never win the lottery without buying a ticket.
Shotlocation matters too
When we assess the shots more deeply though, Shabalala is actually taking more shots per 90 minutes on the field in the DStv Premiership than any other Chiefs player. The problem is that he just isn’t getting enough minutes on the pitch. For every 90 minutes played, Shabalala is firing off 2.70 shots. That is ahead of Edson Castillo’s 2.40 attempts per 90 and 1.90 efforts from Ashley Du Preez per 90 minutes. He hits the target 30% of the time, below Du Preez’s 40% shooting accuracy and 46% from Nkosingiphile ‘Mshini’ Ngcobo, though.
That’s not to say that Shabalala’s shot locations can’t improve, even if he has improved his frequency of attempts. Since his debut, we’ve seen a large number of efforts from him from a very long distance out (30+ yards) where the chances of scoring are minuscule. We also noted that a lot of his efforts came from narrow angles near the byline. He must work on his fitness and his engine to arrive in the box and around the penalty spot more often. That is how he will start to put up scoring numbers more in line with the expectations for a Kaizer Chiefs number 10.
How creative is Shabalala?
If we try to determine the key aspects of a number 10, it’s hard to look past scoring goals, creating chances and winning the ball in the final third. The latter metric is one where Shabalala still lags behind at 0.40 final third recoveries per game. He does tend to win the ball in the middle third though, perhaps highlighting that Chiefs don’t often press high up. When we come to creativity, Shabalala has only created one big (i.e. clear-cut) chance all season in the DStv Premiership. That points to two factors: 1) he is not particularly good when used on the wings and it limits his final ball, and 2) his overall form has regressed a bit, something you usually see from youngsters in their second full season with the first team. He has created 11 chances overall this term, around 1.50 per 90 minutes. That is slightly higher than Pule Mmodi, which may show you that the former Golden Arrows winger has been a bit underwhelming in large parts. For reference, Mduduzi Mdantsane has only created 12 chances (one more than Shabalala), but he is at 2.40 chances created per 90 minutes, so he makes more creative impact when he gets rare opportunities. Aside from creating chances with passes, Shabalala can also open up space with his dribbling. In fact, he has by far the best dribble success rate in Amakhosi’s squad at 73.7% and his 1.90 dribbles per 90 minutes put him ahead of Nkosingiphile Ngcobo as Chiefs’ leader for this DStv Premiership campaign. He has also won 84.6% of his tackles attempted, which is a great return albeit from a small sample size.
Will Cavin trust him vs Sundowns?
If we consider how few minutes Shabalala has been given by Cavin Johnson in a No. 10 role (with most of his minutes as a winger instead), we can infer that the coach doesn’t quite trust the player just yet. In two Soweto Derbies that the caretaker coach has overseen, Shabalala hasn’t started either of them. In the November clash, all of Yusuf Maart, Castillo and Sibongiseni Mthethwa were selected with two narrow wingers. For the March derby, Mdantsane got the nod.
Earlier in the season, when Chiefs played Mamelodi Sundowns under Molefi Ntseki, it was Maart, Castillo and Siyethemba Sithebe selected and no No. 10 at all. It would be brave for Johnson to select an open and attack-minded 4-2-3-1 against Masandawana instead of reinforcing the midfield area. He might instead play it safe and move Shabalala wide or drop him to the bench in favour of recalling Castillo for his defensive nous and physicality. That would be a real pity for Shabalala. Whilst Chiefs need results to secure a Top Eight finish, they also need to use the rest of this season to build something for next term.
How his competition compares
As we mentioned in the feature regarding Chiefs’ Best XI, the No. 10 position has lacked consistency in terms of selection this season. In Amakhosi’s last nine matches we’ve seen a number of players
used in that crucial role. In the Nedbank Cup against Milford FC, Mshini Ngcobo started in that area, but he was dropped for Keagan Dolly against Moroka Swallows.
Dolly failed to have much impact against the Dube Birds and was taken off after Edmilson Dove’s red card. The former Montpellier man only set up one chance and no shots in his 56 minutes and he struggled to get involved with just 22 touches of the ball. Johnson kepthimintheXIastheNo. 10 against Arrows, but he didn’t set up a chance and only made five passes into the final third.
The Chiefs high earner injured his foot and has missed the last six matches. Due to that injury ruling Dolly out of the Soweto Derby, Mdantsane was handed a rare start. His creativity was useful on the counterattack, and he had a hand in Du Preez’s second goal. Clearly, the coach wasn’t overly impressed by the outing because he dropped Mdantsane against his former club Cape Town City for the next match. Shabalala was in the starting XI but was surprisingly used down the right with Du Preez behind Wandile Duba.
The same selection was seen a few days later in the defeat to Stellenbosch FC where Shabalala was seen playing as a wide player of sorts instead of playing in his best role. Both Du Preez and Shabalala were dropped for the defeat at Chippa United with Mdantsane suddenly back in the XI. He created four chances in the defeat in East London, but it wasn’t enough to keep his place at Richards Bay.
For the last two matches, we’ve seen a more balanced selection with two genuine wingers to stretch play horizontally, a speedy Du Preez up front to stretch teams vertically, and Shabalala to benefit from that between the lines.
Trying to compare which number 10 is the most effective is not easy. It’s clear that Du Preez was very ineffective in that role and Dolly hardly excelled either. In fact, all of Dolly’s best form for Kaizer Chiefs has been as a right winger. That leaves ‘Mshini’, Mdantsane and Shabalala to battle for one place. Arguably Mdantsane’s outings against Pirates and Richards Bay FC warranted him getting a run of starts. Shabalala’s goal should see him play most of the remaining matches instead.
Ngcobo has one goal and no assists in 691 minutes this term. Mdantsane has two assists but is yet to score in 590 minutes on the pitch. This is a player who was signed to boost the goalscoring department having scored 20 goals in a Cape Town City shirt. Since December 2021, about 2.5 years of football, Mdantsane has only netted two open play goals. In summary, Shabalala may be the best bet right now overall considering his age (a full nine years younger than Mdantsane) and therefore his potential.