Party is its own worst enemy, says analyst
A RESPECTED political analyst has warned that the ANC could lose the 2019 general elections to the official opposition DA, if it fails to swiftly address its internal challenges.
Professor Kealeboga Maphunye, the University of South Africa’s Wiphold Brigalia Bam Chair in Electoral Democracy in Africa, said the ANC has already lost Western Cape and if the party does not self-correct it could lose more provinces.
Maphunye was speaking at the UnisaSowetan Dialogues held at the University of South Africa’s main campus in Pretoria on Thursday night.
Maphunye’s presentation outlined scenarios the ANC could find itself in after the 2019 elections.
Speaking on the scenario where the ANC loses elections outright and was replaced by the the DA, Maphunye said: “I foresee that kind of situation if the ANC keeps on haemorrhaging and losing support and eventually you might have a DA government if (the ANC does not address its issues).”
Maphunye said if the ANC failed to address the President Jacob Zuma factor, which relates to his removal, the party could lose further support.
“The other (ANC members) are still uneasy because they are benefitting from Zuma and if branches are not given space to speak and the top six officials of the party remain aloof and believe that food parcels will resolve the problems (this will have negative consequences at the polls),” he said.
Another scenario involves the ANC losing significant support to opposition parties, losing more provinces and subsequently entering into coalition with opposition parties.
He said the ANC has to bear in mind that its supporters are dynamic.
“ANC voters are increasingly becoming sophisticated and they are not like the traditional loyal voters who used to say ‘My party, wrong or right. My father’s or mother’s party, wrong or right, I am going to vote for it even if I see that it is not delivering the goods’,” said Maphunye.
He described the ANC as its own worst enemy because the party was fighting against itself.
“There is a two-year window for the ANC to arrest the decline. They can do it, if they have really listened to the voters.
“But if the ANC says it does not have to listen to the voters, the party will be punished,” he said.
He said the ANC had different types of voters.
“Firstly they vote in large numbers for their party because they like it due to the Mandela mania and struggle credentials of their party.
“Some abstain as they think that it is a protest vote,” he said.
The ANC supporters usually do not like the third option, which is to vote for alternative parties and research shows that people would rather abstain if their party has disappointed them, said Maphunye.
“Some of them would rather spoil their votes or behave in a disruptive manner, for instance, the Vuwani, Malamulele and Khutsong incidents,” Maphunye said.