Improved mask-wearing can help save 9,000 lives
Projections grim if strict protocols are ignored
If SA improves the wearing of face masks and tightens social distancing measures, more than 9,000 lives could be saved by December 1.
This is according to projections released by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in the US, which looked into the response to Covid-19 in sub-Saharan Africa.
According to projections, the largest number of deaths in the region are likely to occur in SA, Zambia, Kenya, Malawi, and Zimbabwe.
Researchers said that adherence to mask-wearing and social distancing mandates in hard-hit countries could prevent up to 73,085 deaths in sub-Saharan Africa by December 1.
The IHME said if correct mask use increases to 95% and social distancing mandates are re-imposed, SA’s December 1 death toll could be reduced from a projected 41,402 to 31,529.
Projections released by health minister Zweli Mkhize in May showed that South Africa would see 40,000 deaths and almost 1-million infections by November.
Infections have been rising at an alarming rate. Last week the country passed the 10,000 mark in Covid-19 deaths.
While addressing the nation on July 12, President Cyril Ramaphosa said some of the modelling used by the government projected that between 40,000 and 50,000 deaths will be recorded before the end of this year.
Ramaphosa complained about people hosting parties in their homes and large gatherings at funerals, which curtailed the success of government’s efforts in the fight against Covid-19. Ramaphosa immediately suspended the sale of alcohol and announced that wearing a mask in public would now become compulsory.
Some of the latest figures reveal more than 560,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases in SA and 10,408 deaths.
The IHME warned that adherence to mask-wearing and other prevention measures could reduce the death toll in the region. However, if people ignore such efforts, it forecasts 158,773 deaths.
“It is encouraging that in many sub-Saharan African countries, early mandates to practise social distancing and limit travel mitigated the spread of Covid-19. These new projections suggest such mandates must continue to play a critical role, and that people in all countries should wear masks regularly.
“As we have seen in the United States, the price of loosening these mitigation efforts prematurely could be significant increases in new cases and deaths,” said the IHME’s Christopher Murray.
The institution’s modelling of the Covid-19 pandemic draws on reports from ministries of health as well as data from countries around the world.
Projections were produced in consultation with the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), an agency of the African Union.
John Nkengasong, director of the Africa CDC, echoed the sentiment of the IHME.
“Many thousands of deaths can be prevented by continuing to encourage correct, widespread, consistent mask use, social distancing, and careful people movement,” he said.
People in all countries must wear masks regularly