SA’s politics playing out in the intensive care units, morgues
The ruling party is now a zombie, while opposition parties are in critical health
In 2014, Prof Mzukisi Qobo and I published a book, The Fall of the ANC: What Next?
We were deliberately diagnostic and prognostic: “The fall of the ANC is no longer something fanciful, but a reality waiting to happen. The depth of factionalism and the extent of corruption in the party and its government have reached a dangerous, cancerous stage.”
Predictably, ANC die-hards dismissed our analysis as a lunatic’s prophesy. The conclusion we had drawn indeed had a ring of madness: “There does not appear to be any possibility of rescuing the ANC. The party is on its deathbed.”
The book was published a few months after the ANC had turned 102, a milestone shared with no other liberation movement in Africa.
In biology, old-age is regarded as a mark of proximity to extinction. In politics, it is viewed as a sign of durability and strength, which is why it is hard for people to imagine the death of an old party.
Today, even the blind can see that the ANC is a corpse waiting to be buried – no matter what the beneficiaries of its patronage might say. That the ANC is still governing makes it difficult for some people to realise that the party is in a mortuary.
In The Fall of the ANC: What Next? we forecast that the next thing to happen is for the party to lose elections. Two years later, in 2016, the party lost, for the first time since 1994, three metros: Nelson Mandela Bay, Johannesburg and Tshwane.
Even 2016 did not convince some people of the imminent burial of the ANC. We are now close to the day when the ANC will lose national elections.
In fact, the party would be lucky to win in 2024.
If the ANC were to govern SA after the 2024 elections, it would probably be in coalition with another party – most likely the EFF.
Some people might ask: How could that happen when the opposition is in such disarray?
It is true that opposition parties in SA are in ICU. To be sure, the ANC has not been murdered, and will not be buried by opposition parties.
The party committed unassisted suicide; it will be buried by voters.
Most people are scared, wondering what will take the place of the ANC. The prospect of a coalition government comprised of fractious small parties haunts the imagination.
Under the ANC, it was easy for a businessman to go to Luthuli House with a black bag full of cash, or drive to Nkandla to replenish Jacob Zuma’s bunker.
Here is the troubling question: Whose bunker would a businessman fill up under a coalition government? What about those seeking to influence policy, where would they go to lobby? Such is the dilemma brewing in people’s minds. Unavoidably, SA will be governed by a coalition government.
It will be a long time before a new majority party emerges. We say “new” because none of the opposition parties currently represented in parliament will become a majority party.
The DA will remain in charge of the Western Cape for many years, supported by white and coloured voters who don’t trust Africans.
Nationally, the DA will continue to serve as political insurance for white people. The party will always be represented in parliament.
It will position itself as a litigation centre for white interests. Every major decision by the national government will be challenged in court – whenever the DA feels that white interests are at stake.
What about the EFF? It is simple: the EFF is the ANC in red T-shirts.
Like those in the ANC, EFF leaders are corrupt beyond repair. As the university of corruption, the ANC will go up in smoke with its excellent students – the EFF.
We are now left with the possibility of one or two new parties that will eventually become the majority party in SA. Such a process will take no less than 15 years.
The new formation that will eventually become a majority party will ineluctably attract elements from both the ANC and the DA. Thus, the party will need to immunise itself against corruption and racism.
If you think what you have read in this column is a lunatic’s prophecy, go and read