What we know

Lack of reports may hamstring Ngcobo panel

Sowetan asked political analyst and founder of the Polisee Space David Maimela to unpack the Phala Phala scandal

What is accepted so far?

As the public, we know that money was found at the Phala Phala farm and that the president admits a crime occurred at the premises sometime in February 2020.

What we do not know for sure at this stage?

Is whether the money found was sourced from a legitimate transaction. And whether the farm satisfied all relevant legislation in terms of receipt, keeping, transfer of money, including foreign exchange and so on. In this regard, the SARB, Sars, immigration or SAPS, as state institutions empowered to deal with such matters, have not pronounced or issued reports. The amount involved is also disputed.

What must the panel look at to arrive at a conclusion?

It will be interesting to see how the Ngcobo panel concludes, given that all those institutions above, including the public protector and SAPS, have not concluded their investigations and as such, facts or evidence have neither been verified or tested. The Ngcobo panel may be hamstrung by lack of official investigative reports.

Is the law hurdle all the president needs to jump?

The test in terms of the constitution is beyond the law, so that even if the president manages to satisfy the law, he may still be required to respond to “serious misconduct”. And that’ sa matter of ethics and will depend on the balance of politics, factions and power.

Since 1994, two presidents Jacob Zuma and Cyril Ramaphosa managed to trigger the activation of section 89. That’s serious and historic.

Because politics is a long game of interests in society, we should expect the president to battle it out with everything he has. He is looking for a second term in the party and Union Buildings.

But more importantly, the developments around this say a lot about the maturation of our democracy, constitution and politics, or even lack thereof.