On a knife edge of fear and hope
Zimbabwe is about to face its most critical election since 1980, writes Eddie Cross
THE Zimbabwe crisis had a long gestation: it began in 1983 when the Shona-dominated ruling party, the Zimbabwe African National Union (Zanu), launched a concerted drive to crush its principle opponents in the Ndebele-dominated Zimbabwe African Peoples Union (Zapu).
In the subsequent Gukurahundi campaign and in a military-led operation, tens of thousands were killed and many more people injured and beaten, and their communities were denied food.
Eventually, Zapu resistance collapsed and in 1987 Zimbabwe effectively became a one-party state. The standards of governance deteriorated, economic fundamentals were ignored and corruption in the government became endemic. In defence of its grip on power, Zanu adopted ever greater repression of its opponents and, in the process, threw caution to the wind. By 2008, the state was in the advanced stages of near total collapse.
Alarmed by the state of affairs in its nearest neighbour and largest market in Africa, the government of South Africa intervened and, in May 2007, initiated the process that eventually led to the establishment of a government of national unity in February 2009. This halted Zimbabwe’s slide into collapse, but it did not resolve the fundamental causes of the ongoing crisis and its ethnic and political roots.
The government of national unity was not intended to be a long-term arrangement. Yet, despite almost constant pressure from South Africa and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) states, the parties to the conflict — Zanu-PF and the Movement for Democratic Change — remained locked in mortal combat and progress was very slow.
Finally, the South African government intervened forcibly, in diplomatic and political terms, in early 2013; in a rush, Zimbabweans concluded talks to finalise a new constitution and put it to a national referendum on March 16.
Faced with the end of the term of both parliament and presidency on June 29, the parties began an unseemly rush to hold an election that would possibly bring this 30-year-old crisis to some sort of finality.
Because of the embedded intransigence on the part of the former ruling party, the fundamental reforms required to make this election credible have not been implemented. The electoral field remains lopsided in the favour of Zanu-PF and its acolytes. However, circumstances and a controversial Constitutional Court ruling have forced the hand of all involved and Zimbabweans go to the polls in a scant two and a half weeks’ time, on July 31.
This election is the most critical since 1980, when Zanu was able to take a majority of the seats in parliament and command the formation of the first independence government. Nearly all independent commentators report that
The prospect of another wave of forced migration gives everyone sleepless nights
under free and fair conditions, the MDC, led by Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, would win this contest hands down. But the obstacles are formidable and Tsvangirai has stated recently that no matter the outcome, the elections will have little credibility.
For South Africa and the region as a whole, the stakes could not be higher.
Zimbabwe is again the largest African export market for South Africa. Trade runs at R5-billion a month — much of it in high-end-value industrial products. South Africa is already home to a quarter of Zimbabwe’s population and the prospect of another wave of forced migration after a failed election gives everyone sleepless nights.
Zimbabwe represents the most serious attempt by African leadership to resolve a political and economic crisis in its midst without resorting to force. SADC leaders are united on the need for a final resolution of the situation, tired of the constant bickering and conflicting allegations and demands, as well as the impact on their own societies from the contagion effects.
It is still possible that this election will lead to a new government that has popular support. This could lead to the restoration of Zimbabwe’s international and bilateral relations and restore economic and political fundamentals. There is no doubt that this would lead to a rapid recovery and then steady growth and prosperity. We all have a stake in the outcome.
Cross is a Zimbabwean MP and policy coordinator of the MDC Comment on this: write to tellus@sundaytimes.co.za or SMS us at 33971