Polls take Zimbabwe to brink
ZIMBABWEANS go to the polls at the end of this month to break a political stalemate during which the country almost became a failed state.
Although most of the actors are the same as those involved in the last election in 2008, the elections on July 31 will be fought in changed conditions.
Under the coalition government, Zimbabwe adopted a multi-currency system, which ended hyperinflation and brought relative stability to the economy.
The stable economy has also contributed to a drop in political violence.
Although there are still skirmishes, the brutality of the previous elections has largely disappeared as parties preach peace and hope to ensure free and fair elections.
A new constitution was adopted in March 2013.
But despite widespread optimism that the elections could bring further change, the uncertainty is pervasive.
Opinion polls indicate that President Robert Mugabe and Zanu-PF have recovered support because of their controversial land reform and indigenisation programmes, backed by their liberation struggle credentials and sovereignty mantra.
Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC-T have lost ground owing to their mediocre performance in government and the mismanagement of local authorities.
There are also growing fears that the vote will be rigged and that the result might be rejected by the losers. This has been fuelled by Mugabe unilaterally proclaiming an election date with the support of the judiciary, as well as a chaotic voter registration process.
Pessimists also talk of a possible military intervention if Mugabe loses — although analysts see this as a remote possibility, given internal and geopolitical dynamics around Zimbabwe.
The new voter registration figures, which have pushed the number of registered voters above six million, and the record electoral turnout of more than three million during the March constitutional referendum show Zimbabweans’ enthusiasm about the upcoming elections.
But fears of another stolen election, fuelled by Mugabe’s rivals, are growing by the day.
The situation is worsened because some things remain unchanged. The institutions and individuals running elections are a case in point.
The state electoral machinery — including the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, the registrargeneral’s office, military, judiciary and public media — remain intact since the last election and populated by Zanu-PF sympathisers.
As the global political agreement brokered by Zimbabwe’s neighbours staggers to an end, the dumping of the road map and its required reforms show an absence of conditions for credible elections.
Although it has invited the Southern African Development Community, the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and the African Union to observe the elections, Zimbabwe has not invited the UN, the European Union or the US. Individual countries, including Algeria, Kenya and Uganda, have also been invited. South Africa will send 120 observers and Botswana 200 as part of the SADC mission.
The transitional arrangement followed a disputed presidential election runoff in June 2008 in which at least 200 — mainly MDC-T — supporters were killed in an electoral blood bath triggered by the military after Mugabe lost the first round to Tsvangirai.
SADC, under the tutelage of former South African president Thabo Mbeki, pressured Zimbabwe’s main political leaders to sign the global political agreement, which led to the coalition government.
Throughout the tenure of the unity government, summit after summit resolved that Zimbabwe parties had to implement the road map before the next elections could be held.
Mugabe, now reeling from health complications related to his age — he is 89 — wanted early elections to campaign while he is still fit enough for the rigours of electioneering.