We must forge a social pact or face an African spring
South Africa is once more at a critical point in its history, writes Adam Habib
DEMOCRATIC South Africa is approaching its moment of reckoning. Such moments emerge in all societies, and in the last century we have had our fair share of them.
We had one in 1910, when the English established a union with home rule for Afrikaners and excluded the vast majority of the population. We had one in 1948, when the National Party formally established the project of grand apartheid. We had one in 1960 with the Sharpeville massacre and the subsequent banning of the ANC and Pan Africanist Congress. We had one in 1976 with the murder of schoolchildren, the subsequent repression and attempts at reform. And we had one in 1990 with the unbanning of political parties, and in 1994 with the emergence of the democratic era.
Each moment of reckoning — and the decisions taken at the time — crucially influenced future events, sometimes for decades to come.
But these moments of reckoning are not simply the product of the foibles or the wisdom of leaders. They are often the result of a complex interplay of structural transformation in a society and in the world, and the response of elites and other societal actors.
Our current moment of reckoning is partly a product of a new generation emerging on the political scene. The “born-frees” will for the first time have the opportunity to vote in 2014. Yet they are not a homogenous group, as some seem to imagine. The more privileged among them are increasingly becoming sceptical of the ANC. Repelled by the traditionalist and nonmodernist elements of its political rule, they are casting around for alternatives. The less privileged
The protests in Marikana and the subsequent massacre have focused the public glare on corporate South Africa
are also becoming cynical about the ruling party. These less privileged born-frees are the architects of the service-delivery protests that have become a pattern in South Africa.
Accompanying all this is a general decline in the legitimacy of the ANC. A part of this has emanated from the inefficiencies that have become typical of administrative governance under the ANC. A part of it emanates from the enrichment of ANC politicians and politically connected entrepreneurs that masquerades as black economic empowerment. Most of it, however, emanates from the corruption scandals affecting the ANC. The most damaging of them is of course the ones associated with President Jacob Zuma and his family.
Corporate South Africa is not immune to the legitimacy crisis. The protests in Marikana and the subsequent massacre have focused the public glare on corporate South Africa as much as on the Zuma administration. The enrichment of corporate executives who earn multimillion-rand packages has not only generated widespread cynicism, but has provoked organised workers to demand salary increases of between 60% and 120%. Marikana has also cast a public glare on the collusion between corporate South Africa and ANC politicians, manifested in black enrichment schemes captured most dramatically in Cyril Ramaphosa’s shareholding in Lonmin.
Yet we are not predestined to make bad choices. It is possible for our political and economic elites to transcend their narrow, short-term interests and make decisions that could place us on the path to an economically sustainable, more inclusive and less fractious society.
Such decisions would require the establishment of a social democratic political economy, which is a prerequisite to comprehensively deal with the challenges of inequality, poverty and unemployment. Although this was acknowledged at the ANC’s national conferences in 2007 and 2012 and some elements of a social democratic platform have gradually been adopted, this economic perspective is still constantly challenged in the ruling party by individuals and factions that advocate fiscal conservatism in the guise of financial prudence. This battle for the economic soul of the ANC has to be resolved and a new social pact cemented between business, labour and the state.
The Zuma administration has failed to manage the expectations of both the economic elite and the general populace, with the result that an essential foundation for a successful pact — a willingness by all to defer the immediate realisation of their desires — has not been achieved. This is a profound failure of political management.
At one level, this has been recognised by some political leaders, in particular Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, who has spoken out against excessive executive remuneration and enrichment in both the private and public sectors. At another level, however, the lesson has not been truly internalised. This is most evident in a column featured in the Sunday Times last year titled “Each One, Hire One”. The column aimed to encourage public debate on how to deal with the unemployment crisis and attracted contributions from a number of politicians, some corporate executives and even labour leaders such as Zwelinzima Vavi.
What was striking about the contributions, however, was that although they all recognised the need for a social pact as well as the formal necessity of compromise, none — other than Vavi — was willing to recognise the legitimacy of workers’ concerns about labourbroking and South Africa’s lowwage growth path.
The challenge for potential partners in a social pact is to create the conditions for addressing these problems without sacrificing or weakening the protection afforded to formal-sector employees. With some imagination, it can be done.
The Zuma administration has failed to manage the expectations of the economic elite and the general populace
For as long as an equitable social pact remains a distant dream, South Africa will not bridge the divide between economic growth and inclusive development, nor will it be able to address the related polarisation and social pathologies — chronic unemployment, abuse of children and women, substance abuse, violent crime — that characterise our society. If we do not do this, we will not have responded positively to our moment of reckoning. If this does not happen, we set the trajectory for an alternative evolution of our society — one in which the future is not so promising.
It is not inevitable that we go through an “African spring” up- rising in South Africa. Other societies have avoided it, as we did in 1994. But should our elites — both political and economic — not have the wisdom and maturity to respond to this moment of reckoning with magnanimity to establish a pact and a social democratic political economy that heralds an inclusive future, then we do indeed run the risk of an African spring. This, too, is in our history. It was our people who rose up in 1960 at Sharpeville, in 1976 in Soweto and in the mid-1980s in the Vaal triangle. In those moments we rose up against apartheid.
But our elites — both political and economic — should not become too sanguine because of their liberation credentials. The history of this continent is one in which citizens stand up against would-be liberators who have become perverted by the trappings of power. This too could happen in South Africa. Only a mature response to our moment of reckoning by the government, business and labour can avert this.
Habib is vice-chancellor and principal of the University of the Witwatersrand. This is an edited version of a speech he delivered on Friday at the Mail & Guardian Literary Festival