FLASH FORWARD
Trevor Manuel on the need for long-term vision
THE crisis in the global political economy has demonstrated with great force in some places how crises in some countries affect societies elsewhere in the world — often with devastating outcomes.
This interdependence has forced some deep thinking, perhaps more so since the world got together to establish the United Nations and the Bretton Woods Institutions after World War 2.
The Oxford Martin’s Commission for Future Generations, a collection of some of the world’s foremost thinkers, gathered to apply their minds as to how we can secure the gains of the past halfcentury of growth and prosperity, stabilise the global political economy and ensure that future generations can live in a more prosperous and stable world.
To drive national and global public policymaking, the commission’s report, Now for the Long Term, released last month, forces a break with short-term thinking and a focus on maximising immediate gains.
The report’s basic departure point is that short-term political and economic thinking neglects the long-term inter-generational effects of contemporary crises.
“Increasing short-termism of modern politics and our collective inability to break the gridlock . . . undermines attempts to address the biggest challenges that will shape our future . . ..
‘‘We urge decision-makers to look beyond their daily preoccupations and tackle the problems that will determine the lives of the next generations,” the report states.
The commission identified a set of “megatrends” arising from globalisation. They make up the greatest challenges that will be faced by societies in the coming decades. This includes:
Rapidly shifting demographics — especially ageing populations;
Social mobility, most notably urbanisation and the expansion of the middle class;
Inequality within and between countries, and especially unemployment that is a distinct feature of this inequality;
Geopolitical uncertainty, especially power transitions;
Shifting burdens of communicable and noncommunicable disease;
Pressures on natural resources; and
Rapid technological change. According to the commission, these megatrends will increasingly confront societies around the world, and undermine any shortterm fixes and attempts at securing immediate gains.
This means policymakers will have to take a long-term view. Growth and development will have to be made sustainable, with government and business working together.
Food, energy and water must be secured for the current and future generations. Investment must be secured in public health infrastructure, and international co-operation must be expanded to include all societies towards securing common pool resources for the common good.
Growth targets will have to be set on the basis of actual needs — such as youth employment and flexible workplaces.
The issue of youth unemployment is not unique to South Africa. Several countries in Europe, North America, Africa and Asia carry the same burden. It is important then that global problems are approached internationally and intergenerationally.
To ensure accountability, the commission stresses the importance of resource transparency and information-sharing, including agreed measures to counteract climate change. It is important to remedy deficiencies in public health systems, implement agreed best practice, and partner creatively with pharmaceutical companies.
Countries are advised to collaborate more, update institutions and develop cyber security capacity to navigate structural transitions in international politics. Better governance will aid this quest, as will transparency and investment in research and development.
Business (and government) must be rewired to invest for the long term.
But what stands out in the Oxford Martin report is that too many institutions have struggled to adapt to the rapid changes that are brought about by the forces that drive integration and connectivity in the world.
This has meant short-termism has tended to direct political and business cycles. In practice, this means politics has become exclusionary and lacking in long-term vision.
In many societies the public has lost faith in their leaders. Globalisation, instead of bringing people together, can have the effect of amplifying cultural differences and excluding important voices.
After pointing to some of the shortcomings, the Oxford Martin Commission presents a practical agenda for the long term, shaped around five main concepts.
First, there is a need for “creative coalitions” that require multistakeholder partnerships.
The commission suggests three such ‘‘coalitions”:
A Coalition of the Working — countries, companies and cities which need to work together to tackle climate change
CyberEx — a new “early warning” platform to promote a better understanding of “common threats” among government, corporate and individual users.
Fit Cities — a city-based network to fight the rise of non-communicable diseases.
Second, there is a need for more innovative, open and reinvigorated institutions. Today’s institutions and processes should be open, transparent and steer towards long-term resilience. In this respect the focus must be shaped by decades-long investment in independent accountable institutions able to operate across longer-term horizons. These institutions must be “fit for purpose”.
They should contain “sunset clauses” built into international institutions which require a review of accomplishments and mandates to ensure that all publicly funded institutions are fit for 21st-century purposes. Here we must reflect on the fact that the post-war institutions that were created in the years immediately after World War 2 (the United Nations and, later, the World Trade Organisation) were created within a specific international political and historical context.
Evidence has shown that these institutions have lost much of their effectiveness. In the case of the WTO, for instance, it is telling that the Doha Round is effectively collapsed, and there seems little chance of resuscitation.
Politics needs to be opened up in order to optimise new forms of participation and transparency.
Third, existing institutional incentives should be rebalanced to reduce the bias against future generations. This can be achieved by measures such as:
Encouraging business to focus on the long term, ensuring companies and financial systems give greater priority to long-term “health”, and to look beyond daily or quarterly reporting cycles;
Encouraging investment in people. Begin by removing perverse subsidies on hydrocarbons and agriculture, and redirect support to the poor; and
Creating an index to track the effectiveness of the leaders of countries, companies and international institutions on longer-term issues.
Fourth, there has to be an investment in younger generations to promote more inclusive and empowered societies of the future. Priorities should include breaking intergenerational cycles of poverty through social protection measures such as conditional cash transfer programmes, and investment in youth guarantees to address unemployment and underemployment.
Finally, we have to build and promote a common platform of understanding. The ability of policymakers to address today’s global challenges is undermined by the absence of shared values and a shared vision for society. It is important that we move beyond historically-bound and often antagonistic perspectives to establish a common platform for dialogue that speaks to all cultures and countries, establishing an enduring shared vision for global society.
Manuel is Minister for National Planning in the Presidency and Member of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations