Two-thirds ANC majority on cards

AN exclusive Sunday Times survey suggests that an ANC two-thirds majority is a real possibility in the upcoming elections.

Conducted by Ipsos shortly after the opening of the 2014 elections window and polling a fully representative 2 222 registered voters, the survey also shows 22.9% support for the Democratic Alliance and 3.7% for Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters.

The survey found 66.1% support for the ruling party, suggesting that — contrary to much public speculation — it could secure a two-thirds majority on May 7 and, with that, the unfettered power to amend the constitution. The party narrowly missed the mark in 2009, ending up with 65.9% of the vote.

The survey was conducted between February 20 and March 11 and represents the views of the electorate immediately after President Jacob Zuma announced the election date. It was completed before the release on Wednesday of public protector Thuli Madonsela’s findings on the upgrades to Zuma’s home in Nkandla, which could affect voter sentiment.

Madonsela found Zuma and a raft of other government officials and officeholders guilty of maladministration and/or unethical behaviour in connection with the upgrades that could cost taxpayers nearly R250-million. The cabinet has now launched an inquiry.

A previous Ipsos-Sunday Times sur-

vey, conducted in December, found ANC-inclined voters viewed Nkandla more as a Zuma issue than an ANC issue and that they distinguished between the actions of the party and those of its leader. This indicates that the outcry against Zuma may not damage the ANC at the polls.

The survey suggests growth for the DA in line with its previous performances, but puts it well short of the 30% national target it has widely touted.

Should the DA get about 20%, it will have done little better in terms of attracting black votes than to retain the 5% it won in the 2011 local government elections. In 2009, it secured 16.6% of the vote nationally and just less than 3% of all black voters.

On a moderate turnout, the DA’s 22.9% would translate to 6.5% of registered black voters, 87% of whites, 64% of coloureds and 54% of Indians. This suggests the party has still not made a significant breakthrough among black voters.

The new kid on the block, the EFF, is well entrenched as the third-biggest party, according to the survey, but a significant gap separates it from the DA — which itself lags far behind the ANC. The EFF appears unlikely to make the same impact that the Congress of the People did in 2009, when it secured 7.4%.

Ipsos presented three different voter turnout scenarios: high (84.6%), medium (74.6%) and low (69.8%).

Although there is some fluctuation in favour of the DA on a lower turnout — its support increases marginally from 22.9% to 23.4%, whereas the ANC’s drops from 66.1% to 65.9% — the general mood of registered vot- ers one month into the official election period puts the ANC deep into the 60% bracket.

The full results for all three turnout scenarios are as follows, tabulated under party name, (2009 result), high turnout scenario, medium turnout scenario, and low turnout scenario:

Support for the smaller minority parties drops dramatically and only the IFP, Azapo and the ACDP manage to break the 1% barrier. Support for COPE and Agang SA is just 0.7% and 0.4% respectively.

However, these numbers are all within the margin of error for the poll (1.25% to 2.8%) and given the small differential, the smaller parties could switch places in the rankings with only a fractional change in votes.

It is clear that support for COPE, which managed 7.4% in 2009, and the IFP, which managed 4.5%, has collapsed con- siderably. The ANC has eaten up much of the support for these parties, which has compensated for the support it has shed to the EFF and the DA.

The poll was conducted after Mamphela Ramphele’s Agang SA fell out with the DA over a proposed merger.

There is little evidence from the survey that Agang SA will manage to secure more than a single percent of the vote.

Support for the FF+, UCDP and UDM appears to be dropping further below an already very low base.

The election period continues to unfold and the key test, especially for a party such as the DA, will be when the ANC attempts to put additional pressure on its opposition to “squeeze” any potential supporters back into its camp.

The DA will undertake a similar strategy.