ANC looking good to keep Gauteng
| Results of Sunday Times election survey show improvement for DA; drubbing for small parties
IN the two most hotly contested provinces — the Western Cape and Gauteng — a high turnout scenario (84%) suggests that both the Democratic Alliance in the Western Cape and the ANC in Gauteng respectively enjoyed outright majorities at the beginning of the official election period, a poll commissioned by the Sunday Times and conducted by Ipsos shows.
Outside Gauteng and the Western Cape the sample size in the provinces is too small to produce probable scenarios based on turnout.
The top three parties for each of these seven provinces were: KwaZulu-Natal (ANC 54.6%, DA 10.9%, IFP 5.4%); Mpumalanga (ANC 55.6%, DA 12.2%, EFF 6.5%); Free State (ANC 56.4%, DA 12.2%, EFF 7.3%), North West (ANC 72.9%, EFF 5.8%, ACDP 2.9%); Limpopo (ANC 74.3%, DA 8.3%, AgangSA 2.7%); Eastern Cape (ANC 61.8%, DA 26.6%, EFF 2%) and Northern Cape (ANC 62.4%, DA 27.3% and FFPlus 1.3%). An average of 12% of respondents (it differed across provinces) refused to answer, did not know or chose no party.
The standout province in terms of DA growth is the Eastern Cape, where the party came in at 26.6%, a huge increase from its 2009 showing of 9.9%.
The small size of the Eastern Cape sample is probably responsible for this result, and the disproportionate number of rural voters will push the DA’s final total down significantly come election day, although it will still grow.
The collapse of the Congress of the People in the Eastern Cape has no doubt contributed to the DA’s growth. By last month, COPE support was at 0.3%, whereas in 2009 it managed 13.7%. The ANC got 68.8% in the Eastern Cape in 2009.
Eastern Cape DA leader Athol Trollip told supporters last week: “Our party runs one of the most sophisticated polling op- erations in the world, and let me just say that the ANC is in for a shock in the Eastern Cape in this election.”
The Ipsos poll suggests that although 26% is unlikely, the party will extend its support beyond 15%.
The Economic Freedom Fighters fared best in the Free State (7.3%), followed by the Western Cape (6.9%) and Mpumalanga (6.5%). Surprisingly, in Limpopo, a stronghold for EFF leader Julius Malema, the party has not yet had a significant effect, coming in at just 2%.
Agang SA is contesting only seven provinces, missing out on the Northern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. The poll confirms its support in those provinces is negligible.
The Northern Cape remains the most difficult province to gauge, because of the small population spread over a huge area, mostly rural. The ANC fared well in the poll, with 62%, as did the DA, which polled 27%. In 2009, they managed 60.7% and 12.5% respectively.
The ANC looks likely to retain amajority in Kwa-Zulu-Natal. Although not reflected on the table, the National Freedom Party managed 4.3% in the province, second to the Inkatha Freedom Party (5.4%). The IFP won 22.2% of the vote in the province in 2009.