Rachel’s got it figured out: Chile for the cup
FOUR years after South Africa staged a hugely successful World Cup, one of the most open tournaments — with even Chile tipped to lift the trophy — starts in Brazil on Thursday.
There’s no Paul the Octopus this time round, but there is Rachel Riley — a renowned UK mathematician and Oxford graduate
And if you thought the usual suspects — Spain, Brazil, Argentina, Germany, France and Italy — are the favourites, think again.
Riley, the popular host of Channel Four’s cult show,
Countdown , was commissioned by betting agency Ladbrokes to turn her brilliant mind to figuring out who will win the World Cup.
She came up with permutations certain to raise eyebrows — all of her statistics point to outsiders Chile to win the World Cup.
Riley, a Manchester United fanatic, has been poring over data from world cups down the years to try and pinpoint patterns that will tell us which team will lift the trophy in the Maracana on July 13.
She took into account a diverse range of factors, including goal average, goal scorers, win rates and climate and geography, in a mathematical formula to try and find a winner.
She found that since the Mexico World Cup in 1986, performances in qualifying have had a significant influence on the outcome of the tournament.
The key is not to peak too soon and to do just enough to qualify, with a win rate of between 50% and 66%.
This is bad news for Germany and Holland, who raced through their qualifying groups and won 90% of their games, and also Belgium (80%) and defending champions Spain (75%). Chile’s qualifying win rate of 56% is just about perfect.
The second-biggest influence, according to Riley, are the goal-scoring averages. The previous seven world champions averaged only 2.1 goals per game through the qualifying rounds.
This rules out England, who averaged more than three goals a game in their 10 qualifying matches.
Relying on one star player is not the key to success, either. Top scorers in previous World Cup-winning teams scored an average of 4.85 goals during qualification.
This time round, Luis Suarez scored 11 and Lionel Messi 10, knocking Uruguay and Argentina out of the equation. But their South American neighbours, Chile, had Arturo Vidal and Eduardo Vargas on five goals each.
The fact no nation from outside Europe and South America has won the World Cup rules out a number of teams. And no team with odds of 100-1 has ever prevailed, either.
Riley said: “Having crunched all the numbers and stats, my maths suggests Chile are a good bet to upset the odds at 40-1.”