Zuma and ANC must take blame for low-growth trap

BEHIND the bewildering lists of figures, trajectories and projections offered by Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene in his budget this week lies a simple and inescapable truth: South Africa is trapped on a low-growth path that bodes ill for our democracy and its people in the years ahead. Why is this so?

It’s astonishing that, with all our mineral wealth, our vast agricultural and tourism potential and our developed manufacturing sector, we should find ourselves at this impasse. With growth of 2% pencilled in for next year — and that is a best-case scenario — we will battle to sustain whatever gains have been made in living standards, not to mention staving off the ratings downgrades that could be the death knell for our currency and our economic prospects.

Of course, our past can get some of the blame for this state of affairs: low skills, poor levels of public services, widespread poverty and high levels of inequality. Equally, we can blame the slowdown in the world economy and the fall-off in demand for commodities.

All of these factors make it more difficult for South Africa to deliver on its lofty promises to its people. But there is another, starker and more obvious reason for the malaise we find ourselves faced with, and here one need look no further than the ANC government and its head, President Jacob Zuma, which hang like a dark cloud over our welfare.

Although Zuma has lost the confidence of the markets and of serious investors everywhere, the ANC spares no effort to put its own neck on the block in defence of his baleful rule. No institution is safe from its predations. From the National Prosecuting Authority to the public protector to our corruption-fighting agencies, and now even the South African Revenue Service, the debilitating infighting and palace intrigue that are the hallmarks of Zuma’s rule have raised a serious question mark over our future as a modern, reliable economic partner.

It is not only the ANC’s defence of an indefensible leader that saps us: it is its defence of outdated ideologies that shackles our prospects. The coalition that brought Zuma to power has to be appeased. All its constituencies have continually to be bought off, be it the communists in government who blunt its message to investors, to the unions, especially in the public sector, who regard the fiscus as a bottomless honey pot to be plundered. For this, taxes have to be raised.

In one breath we are told that agriculture offers potential for growth, in the next we are about to implement a Mugabe-inspired land grab. That Mugabe himself is livening up his 91st birthday this weekend by admitting to state radio that his land reforms were a mistake will surely be ignored as no doubt we join in the celebrations, such as they are.

Tourism is also a good bet, we are told, yet we are bringing in absurdly strict visa regulations, and no amount of howling from tourism groups can deter the government from this path. After all, what would business know about tourism that the all-knowing ANC wouldn’t? It’s a familiar pattern in all sectors of the economy. We are told that we must save electricity, and to expect much higher tariff increases. Yet the ANC and government are determined to maintain the Eskom monopoly, giving precedence to ideology over practicality.

We are told to tighten our belts, yet the government spends as if there were no tomorrow. Nkandla is just the most obvious monument to this reckless profligacy.

We are beholden to a liberation party for which the party never ends. We look to China for inspiration, conveniently overlooking that the Chinese economic “miracle” is predicated on keeping millions in servitude. We appeal for a breath of fresh air on the ideological front, yet we’re fed only tired excuses. Who would want to be Nhlanhla Nene?