Dust clouds, carcasses, prayers . . . what crisis?
Worst Drought in Decades | State admits the signs are bad, but talking of a water security threat is ‘premature’
THE Water and Sanitation Department has refused to label the drought a crisis, despite admitting that more than 9.3-million people across South Africa have been affected, and despite five provinces having been declared disaster areas.
The government has warned that the drought — largely driven by a severe El Niño weather pattern over the Pacific Ocean — is set to continue for at least the next three months, with the next significant rainfall only predicted for March next year.
KwaZulu-Natal, North West, Free State, Limpopo and Mpumalanga have declared “drought-related disasters”, according to Water and Sanitation Minister Nomvula Mokonyane. The agricultural sector, which has arguably been the worstperforming sector of the economy this year, has contracted 17% because of the drought.
Dam levels across the country — except in the Eastern Cape — have decreased from a year ago, due to two consecutive years of below-average rainfall. The dams are, on average, 10% lower than in November last year. This has left farmers and rural households with acute water shortages and large cities facing strict water restrictions and rationing. Mokonyane said about 2.7 million households across the country were being affected.
Yet Water and Sanitation Department spokesman Sputnik Ratau said this did not translate into a national crisis.
“We accept that there are areas that are in crisis, but to refer to a ‘national water crisis’ and a threat to water security is premature,” he said.
But Ratau acknowledged that the situation could worsen very quickly. “The need for rainfall cannot be underplayed and is, therefore, very significant. With the lack of rainfall, all systems, even those not in a drought situation right now, will be further stretched. It is, therefore, difficult to give a timeframe as to how long the country can afford not to have rainfall.”
Experts warned this week that things were likely to get worse.
“The existing state of drought will worsen even further,” said Francois Engelbrecht, a climate studies researcher at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research.
He said the El Niño weather system meant that there had been less, and more infrequent, rain in the past two years. This, coupled with effects of climate change, had left the country in the position it is in now.
“All of 2015 has been exceptionally warm in South Africa, and also globally. This is due to two factors: the first is systematic and [the second] continued effects of global warming and the strong El Niño event.
“Even when summer arrived, when we moved into spring, we were already in a state of drought. There was already a mild drought over the entire South Africa, except for the Cape south coast region, which stretches from George to East London. In northern KwaZuluNatal, southwestern Mpumalanga, Limpopo, North West and the Free State, there was already a state of severe drought,” he said.
Cobus Olivier, a scientist at the South African Weather Service, said the dry conditions would continue because of El Niño.
“This, however, does not persist indefinitely for the whole of summer and wet spells are still likely to occur, only at a far smaller frequency than normal. We expect the generally drier and warmer conditions to persist throughout summer,” said Olivier.
The need for rainfall cannot be underplayed and is, therefore, very significant